this week’s best MMA bets we’re talking
Noche UFC I’m gonna give you guys my
most confident picks on the card my
favorite Underdog will talk the lock of
the week prop slash value bets and then
finish it out with the parlays so make
sure you guys smash that like button and
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sure to share the video as well Riding
High after last week now four locks in a
row getting W’s for me so a good streak
going here leading into Noche UFC this
weekend all Berg obviously get it done
at against by submission which was not
something many of us expected and
obviously the fight ended up going
distance and then the review shows that
da un Zhang tapped out it was a sick W
for alberg happy that we’re on a nice
roll with the lock of the week streak so
I want to get things started off with
the lock of the week
Roman copy love to beat Josh fremd in
this fight is the lock of the week for
me now as far as the lines I have
noticed a swelling in the lines right
now we’re looking at it in a bit of a
wide State at minus 350. if you remember
Sunday on the breakdown it was at like
minus 250 minus 260 range obviously a
lot of people feel as though copy love
is a sure winner at the end of the day
it’s the fight game he is the lock of
the week and I knew Sunday I was calling
it as the lock obviously if the lines
were at this on Sunday maybe I would
have looked elsewhere but I got a ride
with my guns I gotta ride with my guy
that I wrote down as a lock even if the
lines are not what I love to see it’s a
pretty chalky card overall and you’ll
see when we talk about some of uh you
know the other picks on the card that
there are some wide damn lines for these
matchups there’s also some good
underdogs too which we’ll get into but
the lock of the week here is going to be
Roman copy love I just see him as such a
superior fighter to Josh fremd in this
fight and I look at the Striking from
distance of copy love I look at his
ability to mix his strikes together with
kicks punches stance switches his sniper
style from the outside is pretty on
point and I don’t doubt him in the
grappling positions either I just feel
he’s a much more
fine-tuned mixed martial artist than
Josh fremd who on the other side is a
big guy at six foot four is going to be
the larger man between the two has
pretty decent cage pressure and control
his win last time out was Jamie Pickett
copy love is on a three fight knockout
win streak and I actually think
he’s in his prime now he seems better
than before and like the way he’s
winning these fights all by knockout it
seems like he’s elevating to a level
that could potentially break into the
rankings Grant and middleweight is
stacked and there’s a lot of killers
there I love copy love here in this
matchup also note that Josh friend has a
recent loss to Trey Sean Gore and look
at the level of competition he’s jumping
here he beats cedricus Dumas and beat
Jamie Pickett now they’re throwing a
Roman copylov who’s a straight monster I
got copy love confidently the KO line is
-135 I do believe he’s gonna knock out
Josh friend on the regional scene frem
was actually knocked out by Gregory
Rodriguez not an easy guy to put away
obviously with his size but on the feet
I feel as though he’s a lot more clumsy
than a Roman copy law he’s much less
technical he’s much less explosive and I
think he’s at a disadvantage of the
speed so the One path to victory for
frem would be cage pressure in control
because I don’t think it’s going to be
easy for for him to put copy love on his
back I don’t think that’s what’s going
to happen I think copy love is going to
beat him up and knock him out Roman
copylov is the lock this week and I
think he’s bringing me to a five streak
which I definitely look forward to Let’s
jump to the next section the most
confident picks on the card
these picks here gonna be regardless of
odds I’m gonna throw them up and this is
all high confidence we got four of them
we got Josephine Knutson we got Edgar
chairez Lupita godines and Raul Rosas Jr
let’s first start with Josephine nutson
it’s a women’s fight between her and
marnick man I really feel as though
she’s going to be able to dictate where
this fight takes place as well as
dictate the Striking pace and I think
kanatsun with the Striking background is
eventually going to find the KO she also
trains that All-Stars team you know
obviously Hamza chimaya of the All-Stars
guy they got some straight Killers over
there I like knutson’s chances in this
match up here with marnick man a ton but
like The Bookies are thinking the same
thing I’m looking at lines around minus
600 for
that’s damn wide in the spots that have
her wider than that
so obviously the money line is hideous
here and unfortunately we got a lot of
that with this card you can get a bit of
plus money on the KO side cannot send by
KO plus 200 now she didn’t get the
stoppage of Isis verbik on Contender
series but she had good striking moments
in that fight with someone in verbeck
who is a striker too who fought as a
professional in Striking and now I have
marnick man on the opposite side that I
think is way less skilled on the feet
than cannot sin less athletic and I
don’t think it’s going to be easy forget
for her to get a hold of cannotson so I
feel as though Knudson is going to find
The Knockout in this fight and kind of
put a stamp on that debut after not
getting signed from Contender series
though she had a dominant win I think
she comes in here and styles on marnick
man so we’re going Knutson knockout high
confidence call here the next one we’ll
talk about is gonna be Edgar chairez
over Daniel lacerda Da Silva
let me tell you something guys I like
Daniel lacerda I’m a fan of Daniel
lacarda I think that out of all the
owen4 fighters I can think of in UFC
history is probably my favorite but
Edgar chayres is a pit bull that can
strike and grapple at a solid level
whereas I see Daniel Lucero as a guy who
has a great first round Blitz lackluster
as far as his defensive capabilities I
would say d plus level he has very good
offense and great spurts and can hurt
his opponents but chaidez is a very
tough man he’s not gonna be an easy guy
to put away he’s a Mexican Fighter by
Nature these guys have more heart than
many and the chin is definitely there
he’s also never been finished early he
has been finished in the second round
towards the end of it
I think Daniel lucera is a first round
or bus type of fighter and I think
shayares is going to end up stopping him
in the second round now I like inside of
the distance for shirez it’s minus 170
so at the end of the day maybe not the
greatest tag ever but the money line is
wider than that at minus 235
looking towards shaides by a KO plus 175
a ground and pound stoppage is kind of
what I’m seeing but I’ve also mentioned
I could see him locking up a sub giant
is nearly tapped tatsuru Taira plus 350
for that sub line
so value-wise I like the bigger plus
money at sub likelihood wise I enjoy the
inside the distance call here and I do
think probably second round chair res in
the second round is plus 450. note that
though you know round betting is high
risk territory probably going under one
and a half but I could see a later
second round stoppage for chiras and it
wouldn’t be impossible for Lucero that
it lasts that long but the style of
fight that he brings in the fight IQ
that he’s shown it’s first round
knockout or bust and I don’t think he’s
not gonna try it as out and that’s why
shaides is a high confidence call on
this card
next one we got Lupita godinez at minus
440.
the lines holy awful line
but at the end of the day she really
should be able to outwork at least read
everywhere I think she’s gonna win a
decision Lupita godinez has not shown
great finishing abilities though Reed on
the other side has been finished and I
feel like godinez controls the pace I
think she’s got the faster hands she’s
definitely the better wrestler MMA win
using every facet of her skill set
winning a unanimous decision over Elise
Reed makes a lot of sense to me now over
two and a half is minus 205 but I’d be a
bit cautious with that with a decision
win for godine is at plus 120 note that
Reed’s been finished a good amount
all UFC losses by finish
godinez hasn’t shown great finishing
ability but doesn’t mean she’s incapable
of a finish and a godinous win
potentially by sub is only plus 190 for
someone that hasn’t gotten a finish in
the UFC I’d like to see it higher with a
TKO at plus 400 I think it’d be less
likely she tkos Elise Reed in this fight
potential sub but I’m actually thinking
decision is most likely wide line for
godinez but she is a very confident pick
and I expect her to be able to be the
least read this weekend especially
Mexican Independence Day she’s taken out
Elise
the next one as far as the most
confident picks oh man putting Raul
Rosas Jr here I thought about it for a
while
he’s a high confidence call the line
sucks this is a chalky card
but at the end of the day minus 800 is
way inflated he’s gonna beat Terence
Mitchell he’s going to out muscle him on
the ground and find the submission him
to win by sub being Raul Rosas is not a
great line either at -160 listen I got
bad experiences betting rose sauce in
the past in a you know rough time for me
and I’m not gonna tell you guys to go
throw down eight hundred dollars to make
100 I’m not telling you to bet any of
these things but I am calling the most
confident picks on the card as I see it
I want to tell you guys what I’m feeling
as far as the lines not being my
Mainstay of what I’m talking about with
the high confidence these Fighters
should all win and I expect them to all
win regardless of the betting lines here
not all of them are great but China’s is
a playable tag for sure money line
straight you could potentially touch it
in that minus 230 range Rosas is gonna
beat Terence Mitchell I have him winning
the fight by submission I’m expecting
that to happen and uh you know at the
end of the day Christian Rodriguez who
beat up Rosas is a real good Prospect
Terence Mitchell is unproven at a high
level of mixed martial arts a lot of his
wins are in Alaska against no names
those are the most confident picks I
want to jump now to my favorite
underdogs on the card if you guys
haven’t yet make sure you smash that
like button if you’re enjoying the
content you aren’t subscribed hit that
subscribe button too all right we got
three dogs on the card we’re gonna go
for the uh you know Trifecta all three
potentially uh you know degenerate
three-piece dog parlay but let’s talk
about these dogs I’m gonna go one by one
with the dog section here first I want
to bring up Champion Alexa Grosso she’s
the number one pound-for-pound women’s
fighter on the world right now and she’s
plus 155 as an underdog against
Valentina shevchenko now as I look at
this matchup I recognize chefchenko last
time out having a top control Advantage
Gras so as the better Jiu Jitsu Grosso
also is a tricky boxer for Valentina
shevchenko to deal with and you really
can’t doubt grosso’s gas tank either she
can keep a high pace for a whole fight a
whole five-round championship fight
chefchenko is over 35 which I think
drops the potential of her coming back
getting the win it’s like against the
statistics as far as normally Champions
losing a belt like that especially
Grosso beat a chefchenko who really
struggled against Talia Santos in the
fight previous to that now I expect this
to be a bit of a war Mexican
Independence Day I could see it going
distance I’ve been picking Grosso by
decision but I would not be going and
throwing down you know heavy money at a
decision prop bet here I would say if
you’re gonna touch the main event money
line Underdog Alexa Grosso is your side
guys now as far as the decision prop
I’ll read it off just for those curious
this plus 350 and then submission is
plus 375. submission is also live to
happen once again the end of the day
that spinning back body kick that
chefchenko throws is a moving or Arsenal
could potentially throw it again now can
you imagine lightning strikes twice with
the exact same move getting her back
taken and her strangled I like Rosso to
win it I think she can touch up
chefchenko in the Striking make it a
competitive fight in the grappling and
threaten with subs and I expect a hard
match up if you’re betting this side
it’s the money line Underdog and still
Alexa Grosso as one of my favorite
underdogs on the card the next one we’re
gonna jump right to the co-main event
we’re only jumping one fight Down Kevin
Holland to win
I know people will say bro you’re crazy
Jack Della Matalan is that guy in the
stand up but he is at a significant
disadvantage in the reach
he’s dealing with a Kevin Holland who’s
got good hand speed too and boxing skill
and is a legitimate submission threat
Kevin Hollins known for lacking
wrestling right lacking the wrestling
game
as far as his Jiu Jitsu it’s definitely
there after he strangled kiessa last
time and many will say that was the
Corsica corpse of kiasa sure sure
whatever you guys want to say about
kiessa regardless he beat a good
Grappler by submission last time
on the side of Jack Della he really
struggled with basil hafez who came in
on short notice I could see this club
and sub Kevin Holland on the feet I
expect him to be touching Jack Della and
I think he could potentially hurt him
too as much as I love Jack Della I’m a
fan of JDM as much as I think he has
great boxing this is a risky Step Up in
competition and one that I think is
going to go against him I think he’s
gonna get an L inside of the UFC with
this matchup here I think Holland by
club and sub so Mission win for Holland
sits at plus 500. obviously the money
line plus 125 I would say that’s your
range that’s what you want to throw down
it’s higher than that at some spots
upwards of Plus 142.
Kevin Hollins alive on the dog agreed on
the dog with statistical advantages here
striking from distance he’s been able to
hurt guys at middleweight
notoriously Kevin Hollins in a struggle
with Grapplers or with the best pure
kickboxer in the welterweight Division
and Wonder Boy Thompson who he was
Landing significant shots on
give me Kevin Holland for the win upset
submission club and sub Kevin Holland
Underdog one of my absolute favorites on
the card I love this one
and now the final one that I’ll bring up
is going to be Jasmine Jazz davicius who
I expect to be in a hard fight a real
hard fight
Tracy Cortez is a pit bull man she’s got
good wrestling and solid hands Jazz
divisius I think is the better wrestler
she’s also a little bit longer a little
bit taller I think the physical strength
Advantage could be on Jazz divisius and
the top game I feel like jazz divisius
plus 105 she was an underdog a big dog
against Miranda Maverick and look what
she did to her now she’s fighting Tracy
Cortez who’s good but hasn’t gotten a
top caliber win in the division she beat
Melissa Gatto she’s been out for a bit I
think jazz divisius is live to outwork
her for three rounds plus 105 Jazz
division straight Underdog money line
which is the a side decision prop plus
130 which I think is rather likely
though it’s only a plus 130 jump from
plus 105 not great
over two and a half rounds minus 400. I
think we’re going over that minus 400
tags ugly as hell the money Line Jazz
division aside I believe that the
underdogs I have listed for you guys
this week are pretty Fuego
I really do I feel like
jazz divisius is a Workhorse that could
outpace Tracy Cortez and get a hard win
over I’m gonna say she does that so plus
105 Jazz divisius to close out the
favorite Underdog section we got three
live dogs for sure and some epic
matchups it’s a great card it’s a chalky
card you guys can see it some of these
lines are wide as hell but I think I got
the x-ray vision on some of these dogs
here this weekend looking forward to
them guys I want to jump into the next
segment which is going to be the props
slash value bets and let’s look at some
of these potential props okay so the
first one that I think is worth bringing
up is going to be Daniel zel Huber to
get the win I believe he is going to
defeat
a pretty game Christos yagos and game
enough to go distance but I don’t think
he’s gonna have an easy Time closing
that distance Gap he’s at I believe a
five and a half inch reach disadvantage
that’s off the top of my head could be a
little off close to that
so Huber’s a long kid man and he kicks
well from the outside controls distance
and I think he could win a decision here
I want to bring up the decision decision
win for Zell Huber plus 170 yagos not an
easy guy to put out and so Huber hasn’t
gotten that highlight real UFC knockout
not saying it couldn’t happen here minus
260. I was gonna do azelle Huber
honorable mention in the most confident
pick section but I felt like I didn’t
want to kill it with that so I’ll say it
here for those that just watch most
confident picks or those that maybe skip
this prop section and didn’t listen to
it they don’t know that zohubers I don’t
know mention you do so Hoover honorable
mention I do think he’s gonna beat
Christos yagos from the outside not an
easy fight though minus 260 the line for
him to get the win here now I’ll tell
you guys honestly I don’t love this next
prop at all but I just wanted to bring
it up under one and a half is minus 215
with the Campbell Reyes fight which like
in a sense is like on known probably
Campbell comes out like a bat
out of hell and stops Reyes who hasn’t
fought in almost six years Campbell by
knockout minus 200. I believe it’s gonna
happen that’s my pick for the fight did
not include Campbell in the most
confident pick section because we really
don’t know for sure what we’re gonna get
from Alex Reyes he’s been out so long
could potentially have reinvented
himself or he could be a completely shot
fighter with absolutely zero left in the
tank kind of makes this game so
fun I’m curious to see Campbell should
beat him five to one though Charlie
Campbell’s making his debut
I don’t like five to one that’s an ugly
line I do think he does get it so those
right there some of the prop slash value
bets that I felt were worth noting on
you know outside of our high confidence
picks lock and dog section I do want to
jump to the fame section the fan
favorite section the parlays all right
minus 127 is the first one I have up on
the screen because at the end of the day
I think shayaraz is eventually going to
stop a Daniel Silva
and I think copy love is going to beat
up Josh friend minus 127 is near even
money yes it’s not the greatest plus
money tag but I think this is a heavy
hitter now if you’re a fan of shirez
maybe you’re like yo I wanna stay on shy
it as but I don’t want to uh ride with
you guy as far as the lock being copy
love okay let’s see what we can
potentially do if we threw cannot sin in
our slate we’re shyadas
where we at shires
boom minus 159 uglier loopy in there we
got even money for these three I do
think this one probably comes through as
well
taking out shaides and riding with the
side of just copy love with the ladies
around -117 at the end of the day it’s
these are not pretty tags cannot sin and
copy love I got a good feeling about but
it’s minus 194.
now if you wanted to go a little smoky
with it and go for the high risk High
reward if you threw up Grosso you’re in
that plus 330 range now with cannot sing
copy love grass so this is a little more
risky I like the straight money line of
Grosso but if you’re looking to add two
favorites to it in a parlay and bring
your plus money up and I think they got
good chances of winning this one right
here plus 336. now if you’re like yo
early in the night I want to get a
lady’s dog in Jasmine jazz divisius is
quite live plus 218 for this little
Trifecta there and let’s see it with
Kevin Holland because depending on who
you like plus 241 for that one now if
the dogs swept the card for me I guess
not every dog but my dogs
what line are we looking at jaws
divisius
Grosso
Holland around plus 1200 for the dog
Trifecta the Clean Sweep of the dogs and
mine as well you threw in the lock copy
Love minus 275 at betway but I don’t
think you’re going to see that in most
places DraftKings is really the you know
standard of what the lines are looking
like it’s minus three seven excuse me
minus 345 Plus
16.55 for that high risk High reward
type banger
take out Grosso and Holland let’s just
leave Jaws divisius plus 110 for jazz
divisius excuse me plus 171 for jazz
divisius enrollment copy love which is I
think a heavy hitter man the ladies
fights at the end of the day sometimes
go the opposite way it’s a risky game
but I do believe in the ladies that I’ve
picked I’m just looking at this here to
see plus 293 it’s not great
to get in the big plus money territory
this week you’re going to be really
eating a lot of risk you’re going to be
taking a high risk High reward situation
versus you know throwing down on the
high confidence I’ll put all the you
know high confidence calls on the card
up
Lupita godinez I take I don’t even want
to put rose sauce in plus 160 but let’s
put roll sauce in just for shits and
gigs here plus 203 you can’t get much
plus money even with all the high
confidence picks man I mean the most
confident pick section the lock section
as I’ve laid has been doing very
good at the end of the day arasania was
the only L of those two sections last
week
plus 203 sucks though plus 203 sucks
though I would lean you guys towards
maybe a lighter dog mix-up bet with like
the locker most confident picks that
you’re feeling and then you know a
safety play with the lock that you have
and the high confidence picks a lot of
you probably in similar alignment with
me seeing that uh these high confidence
calls lines are not necessarily pretty
but I think the likelihood of them
coming through is pretty damn high and
I’m looking forward to Saturday so you
guys can sweat it out a bit with me as
I’m riding with copy Love Lock of the
week we got some really good most
confident picks favorite underdogs and I
think the zohuber props interesting too
and I think the safety parlay I listed
off is not a bad idea either guys I hope
you enjoyed let me know in the comments
what is your lock of the week what is
the most confident pick for you on the
car drop some of your favorite dogs
props or parlays in those comments too
I’m curious what the community is
thinking I appreciate you all watching
make sure you smash that like button if
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I’ll be live for the entire thing so
make sure you tune into that fight
companion much love my people if you got
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boy thank you all for watching and I
will see you all in the next one peace
everybody
