the only thing that we’re interested in
is putting money in your wallet
that you want to bet the fights if you
want to have a little bit of action you
are in the right place with my partner
Ian Parker I am bread okamoto ready to
rock between our parlays our props our
straight picks time to make money let’s
go
the UFC is in its hometown of Las Vegas
this weekend but that is not the Apex
that you were looking at it is that big
T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip
and it is Noche UFC Mexico against the
world on this main card on Saturday
headlined by Alexa Grosso taking on
Valentina Remax for the FlyAway
championship and we are here to discuss
it from a gambling perspective as always
hello everybody I am Brett okamoto
alongside Ian Parker very cool idea for
this uh for this UFC Fight Night it is
Mexico against the world except for
Kevin Holland and Jack Della mad Elena
but we will allow that to go on
um even though because it is such a
great fight but before we get to all
that let’s talk about last week UFC 293
how did we do on our Best Bets Mr Parker
You know what last week could have been
a really really good one instead and not
so great went three and three out of
time you’re Strickland under four and a
half rounds I don’t think anyone would
have thought the fight went the way it
did and you know what Strickland was
almost the one that had to go under four
and a half in that first round drop we
hit two evasive volkov with that Ezekiel
choking round two Manel cap I am shocked
he couldn’t get it done dropped those
hitles in round one that kid is tough
Pedro we mentioned this if he gets out
of the first round we were good in the
meantime he was the one that landed The
Knockout and then all burgundy set we
both won so went three and three missed
out in the parlay and started off the
dislocated elbow of Jack Jenkins and
Izzy dropped and we lost the prop of the
night with Izzy by TKO as he lost to the
new middleweight champion Shawn
Strickland
well we were flying high there for a
while so a cool down was uh it was going
to come at some point so it happened at
UFC 293 but it wasn’t all bad we got
some of our Best Bets in and now we just
start another hot streak right now at
UFC Noche and that is going to look like
a main card and it’s going to be just
like a pay-per-view schedule it’s 10
Eastern 7 Pacific you can find it on
ESPN plus again Alexa Grasso taking on
Valentina shipshenko very very curious
to get your thoughts on that such a big
line movement after what happened in the
first one Kevin Holland and Jack Dela
Magdalena the only fight that is in
Mexico against the world but that is
okay because I still very much want to
see this fight very excited to talk to
you about that one as well and then the
rest of them all the Mexicans taking on
a variety of opponents there on your
main card again at 10 Eastern on ESPN
plus and let’s go straight to the main
event as we always do Alexa Grasso is
your champion and there has been a big
time switch in the line the first time
that they fought Valentina it was a
Valentina it was a Valentina shevchenko
type line she was about a nine to one
favorite Ian and now she is only a minus
one set 25. that is a massive correction
you can see here that even wasn’t where
they started they started a little bit
higher as minus 230 but you’ve had some
bets come in and to take it down to -175
so not only has there been a big big
correction the money is actually coming
in on the underdog Champion cannot wait
for your thoughts on this take it any
direction you want to go take it away
well to start off I I can understand why
the Grosso number where Money’s been
coming in on the new champ for starters
Valentina her fight against Talia Santos
a lot of people thought she lost and
then in this fight you know round one
went to Grosso Valentina took round two
and three and then she made a mistake
that’s being back kicked so maybe people
believe that at valentina’s age that the
two fights she didn’t look her same
dominant way then maybe it’s the
Changing of the Guard here okay now
normally I would say hey you know what
that’s a pretty good Trend that makes a
lot of sense except Valentina you just
said it yourself we have not seen a line
other than against some Anna Nunez which
is the only other person she’s lost to
and God knows how long where the number
hasn’t been astronomical so the fact
that it’s minus 175 here I like that for
Valentina you know round one I think
that was her kind of getting the cobwebs
out of the way wiping away Natalia
Santos fight because round two at round
three chefchenko start to take over and
even around four she was winning until
she threw that spinning back kick which
she missed Grasso timed it taken the
back perfectly and got choke but nothing
about that fight showed me that
Valentina you know is is really on the
downhill at all and that’s not taking
anything away from the lexic roster we
talked about this in the last show and
I’ll mention it again she’s got
fantastic striking she’s got underrated
Jiu Jitsu over her time in the UFC she
has improved off her back her takedown
defense in general however at this line
a lot of people may jump on Grouse and
say hey plus money I don’t even mind
people taking the plus five and a half
that means that grozo just has to win
one round on the scorecard and Valentino
doesn’t win inside the distance you got
a clean sweep I still like the bullet
here I love what she said in the
interviews I am more hungry now I still
have time she’s not done I’m going
Valentine Chef Chango to get the belt
back at minus 175. I still think she’s
better everywhere just don’t throw that
spinning back kick in the later rounds
and I think she’ll be just fine
yeah man I want to give my thoughts on
this quickly because I this one I do
have sort of an opinion on from a
gambling perspective because for me if I
was going to be betting this Main Event
it would come down to two schools of
thought and that is one that Valentina
is getting figured out right because
Natalia Santos fight was close closer
than expected and then she goes on and
loses to Alexa Grosso so are you
thinking to yourself hey have people
figured her out a little bit or the
second School thought is that man when
you were at the top for so long it is
just difficult it’s difficult mentally
it’s difficult with all the
responsibilities that you have it’s
difficult to get up for every single
fight we’ve seen it time and time again
we saw it with Anderson Silva and his
weird performance against Chris Weidman
we just saw it I think you know not to
take anything away from Sean Strickland
but a little bit of a flat performance
by Israel adesanya so you’re in one of
those two schools of thought is
Valentina getting figured out or was she
just feeling the fatigue of a champion
and if she is over that fatigue and you
like her mentality then you love this
line you’ll love this line because
you’re getting a great value so to me
that would be the question I would be
asking and you just saw the methods of
Victory there I don’t understand that
you have the prop of the night right off
the bat it’s in the main event go ahead
and give it to us
yeah I’m gonna double down invalidina
here and say she gets it done by
decision you know Brett you made a
really good point that sometimes when
you have that much success for a long
time especially the dominance there’s a
comfort level I don’t think Talia Santos
necessarily figured out Valentina to
answer your question if that was a
question you know I think it was more
about hey maybe Valentina again was back
to that Comfort level hasn’t fought
someone as physically strong as someone
in Talia Santos we just saw Talia fend
off three rounds of takedowns to Aaron
blanchfield right and no one else has
been able to do that per se and then
with Alexa Grosso she was winning rounds
two and three Valentina was really the
momentum was shifting in her favor
tremendously until that missed kick so I
think she gets this done by decision I
think she’s going to be very cautious in
some of the tricky spinning stuff that
she throws even if she’s up three
nothing in these rounds she’s gonna
stick to what she’s good at I think
she’s also going to utilize that ground
game more she had a lot of success in
that fight when she took Rossa to the
ground so let’s go Valentina by decision
at Plus 160.
yeah yeah man and we’re gonna get to
this co-main event because it’s a fun
one but Amanda Nunes you know a very
very weird fight against Giuliana Pena I
mean we saw it in that circumstance as
well I just I think that this line if
you do think that it was just sort of a
mental hiccup for Valentina then again
you just freaking love this line because
you’re going from minus 900 to -175 and
as you mentioned earlier in your
analysis Ian she was ahead on the
scorecards she was ahead she was
probably close to going up three to one
in that fight and yet you have this huge
huge huge correction so it’s just kind
of depending on what you think is going
on with Valentina let’s go to the 170
pound division it’s Kevin Holland taking
on Jack Dylan natalena an interesting
note for me here is it’s the third fight
for Kevin Holland this year but I think
a more important number is that his his
fourth fight in 10 months at the
welterweight limit he doesn’t seem to be
having a huge a very very hard time
getting there but that is extremely
active even by his standards and then
you got Jack Dale and Adelina who’s
supposed to fight Sean Brady in July
that fight didn’t happen so we still had
got to see this guy against the test I
would say this is it what do you think
about this line that Jack Dylan and
Elena minus 155 thank you
I think the line should be flipped I
think the wrong person is the underdog
here and the wrong person is the
favorite and I’m going based on look
level of competition the resume in
itself Kevin Holland has beaten Fighters
that are better than jackdown manilita
based on where Jack is at currently in
his career now we know Jack has won all
this fights minus the last one round one
TK or sub okay Randy Brown I thought
that fight was going to go a little
deeper he caught him but Kevin Holland
is very durable okay he knows how to get
himself out of bad situations and he’s a
little underrated when it comes to his
submission game as we saw between
darshok’s Guillotines in the past JDM I
thought was a little too exposed in that
last fight against his opponent who took
on short notice he got out wrestled he
made some really poor decisions he kept
jumping the guillotine against basil and
for me and he took a lot of shots okay I
mean he gave a lot he took a lot and a
lot of people thought he got away with
one there on the split decision nothing
what I have seen shows that he’s gonna
go against someone Holland is not
someone even though he walks a lot who
really doesn’t fight stupid minus the
Wonder Boy fight where he should have
obviously taken Steven one boy Thomas to
the ground when he dropped and said let
him get up here I’m going with Kevin
Holland as the underdog here the value
is way too solid here Jack in that last
fight I think Kevin could wrestle I know
we’re all laughing when I say that
probably because Kevin gets taken down
but I could see him rocking Jack Jack
out and little lean in the second round
and latching onto a sub you know I just
think that Holland is being over well
under looked here overlooked here
whatever the term is Jack Dell is not
for anyone like him I think Holland gets
it done here
worth noting that uh Kevin’s wrestling
problems have happened more 185 than
170. doesn’t mean that it can’t happen
and he’ll we’ll see when he goes starts
going up against some of those top notch
wrestlers but his problems in wrestling
have happened more at that bigger that
higher weight class and we can bear we
can’t even get through the main card
because uh Ian keeps throwing props at
us you have a long shot parlay on the
co-main event what do we got on the uh
the co-made event long shot partly or
prop excuse me you know oh you’re good
you know what he’s gonna be part of the
long shot parlay too so we’ll just throw
that in there you know what Kevin
Holland I like him by round two round
two submission I’m feeling froggy in
this one Brett let you know it for me
I’ve think that Holland’s gonna stand on
the feet he’s going to have a nice way
to strike from a distance and I don’t
think he’s too worried about Jack taking
him down to the ground and if I think if
he rocks him in round two look Jack
slowed down in his last fight first
fight we saw him going to rounds two and
three and really slow down was taking a
lot of shots I don’t think he could take
a crisp clean Kevin Holland right cross
the way he took it on his last opponent
and what happens when guys get rocked
they shoot in for lazy singles that
darshoker Guillotine will be right there
Kevin Holland round two sub at plus 1800
let’s go
all right so those images of daily
madalina putting himself in those
Guillotines sticking with E and Parker
for this matchup against Kevin Holland
let’s run through the rest of this main
card it starts with Raul roses Jr taking
on Terence Mitchell V zero in the Lost
column is gone from Rosa Junior’s record
but he is still a massive favorite the
biggest favorite on the card minus 800
what do you think
uh you know what I don’t like this
number one I actually really hate this
number for him uh his last fight look we
know what he’s about he’s gonna try and
take this fight to the floor he’s good
at Subs the kid is so young and this
fight maybe makes sense because Mitchell
lost his last fight by sub to Karen’s
Cameron Simon but when you know that the
person has no striking to the point
where it’s not a threat you can defend
the takedowns you know what I would
sprinkle something on Mitchell here
maybe but for me I’m taking a different
shot how about the fight to start round
two at plus 165. Mitchell defends maybe
loses in round two
okay good analysis there let’s go to the
lightweight division as Daniel zuhalder
taking on cristios yagos what do you got
for here this morning
so Brazil Hoover
that’s last win and jagos is someone who
has fought plenty he’s a seasoned vet
very aggressive that saluber is a sniper
and when he can get off and not let his
opponent get inside that’s where he does
his best I like Zell Hoover here I would
throw him in a parlay or if that number
comes down a little bit lower then don’t
mind taking him on the money line
all right then round another main card
is Fernando Padilla taking on Kyle
Nelson another pretty significant
favorite minus 250 what do you think
this one’s another weird line for me
Kyle Nelson coming off a win against
Blake Builder and I’m not saying that
bill there’s a world beater here but but
Kyle Nelson’s fought some decent
competition very tough when he loses
it’s by decision when he’s won other
than the Builder fight he’s won by
knockout Padilla looked fantastic
against Julia Julian Rosa I like this
fight to go over one and a half rounds I
think pretty is getting a little bit of
a more durable opponent in Nelson and I
think that’s where we’re going to see
this fight go into deep round two
possibly round three
all right so a lot of information there
on your main card but we got a
prelimination preliminary card to go
through as always so take us through
your prelim picks for this Noche UFC on
Saturday
well Brett as of right now with
DraftKings some of these lines I’m going
to talk about I’m going to need them to
look for because they’re not up yet like
loopy Gordon is against Elise Reed minus
440 really high number there the
wrestling the Striking she’s better
everywhere I think she gets it done look
for that prop by decision Roman Coppola
minus 330 right now there’s an over
under of two and a half if you could
find an alternative line when the lines
come out over one and a half I like it
there or a late round TKO by Roman
Daniel lucerta look this is one of the
most fun fighters to watch in round one
if he doesn’t get it done he loses in
round two so I don’t mind taking a shot
here to get it done in round one but if
he doesn’t get it done he slows down
throw a live bet on Edgar Cyrus we saw a
fight at Sarah Tyra recently Tracy
Cortez coming off a year layoff a lot of
stuff with her plate outside the UFC
coming against Jasmine Jazz novisius and
Jasmine just beat Miranda Maverick by
decision she’s the underdog here give me
Jasmine I don’t care if it’s UFC Noche
I’m taking the Canadian Charlie Campbell
making his UFC debut against Alex Ranch
who hasn’t fought for years Campbell we
saw in the contender series was winning
and then he got knocked out by Charlie
puth Sorry by Chris Duncan give me
Charlie Campbell lying very high look
for the TKO prop when it comes out last
but not least Josephine nuts in against
marnick man man taking this fight on
short notice nothing we just saw on the
contender side she looked great minus
700 is out of control look for her
inside the distance when that prop
becomes available as well
all right let’s just keep these picks
coming let’s move on to Parker’s parlay
for Saturday what do we got on the
parlay this weekend
I’m going Zell Uber here I think the
momentum office last fight and the way
Thiago is sometimes a little over
aggressive I think he gets sniped we’re
gonna go zalu zeluber love what Roman
Coppola has done his last three fights
now friend is tough but koplov the
biggest difference here Brett he has
been training with a lot of dagestani
Fighters so you see that takedown
defense is so good
if you stand up with him you’re in
trouble and last but not least Charlie
Campbell so the three leg parlay plus
120. let’s go
short and sweet get that easy pay out
and get out of there I like it how about
the Best Bets for this weekend
now Brett Norman
the lines just weren’t there and I’m not
in business the force plays we’re here
to win play so let’s start off I’m gonna
go with the former Champion possibly add
new and Valentina chefchenko the line we
haven’t seen a line like this in her in
forever and because of a spinning back
kick that was the only difference she
was up to to run and possibly going to
three to one like you said Valentina
Kevin Holland a plus 130 I don’t think
he should be the underdog care based on
who he’s fought how he’s won those
fights and based off of jacked Elemental
he doesn’t last you know performance he
finally got pressured he couldn’t get
the fight done round one he looked a
little panicky made some poor decisions
I think Holland capitalizes Padilla
Nelson Padilla is a knockout artist got
it against the rose of round one but
he’s fighting someone in Nelson who is
extremely extremely durable when he’s
been finished it’s been in the later
rounds Nelson also I think is flying
under the radar here might be a live dog
let’s go over one and a half rounds so
Brett after the Padilla Nelson over one
and a half we’re gonna go on to loopy
goindez and Elise Reed I think loopy
wins this fight but out of all of her
fights she’s only finished one most by
decision so let’s go go in this by
decision that prop will be up later
today on the DraftKings sports book and
last but not least I’m gonna go with
Jasmine here look I think Tracy Cortez
is a very solid Prospect strong wrestler
but we saw in our last fight she was
taken down by Melissa gato she hadn’t
come back and Win It round three and
really grind it out and Jasmine just won
a dominant decision who I think gets a
better fighter in Miranda Maverick he
should not be the underdog here we got
two dogs on this card we’re gonna go
with Jasmine money line is the final
best bet
all right five Best Bets and a couple of
them underdogs love that how about your
far long shot parlay what do we got
you know what I I’m not I’ve told people
and I’m stuttering on my own words here
if the dogs are there and I think the
value’s there I’m gonna let them bark
we’re gonna go Kevin Holland Kyle Nelson
Dan Lacerta and Jasmine Josh levisius at
that number is insane all underdogs I
think every one of these plays are live
if Nelson could get into round two and
three I think his cardio and durability
can get him there against someone who’s
only making their second fight with UFC
and Lacerta his last two fights we’ve
seen him up in round one dropping his
opponents and then he fades in round two
maybe this is the time he gets it done
in round one four dogs that’s a crazy
line right there let’s go
all right it is a pay-per-view-esque UFC
fight night it’s taking place at
T-Mobile it’s on your normal
pay-per-view schedule 10 Eastern 7
Pacific ESPN plus and yeah I gotta say
as from a gambling perspective for me
personally I would be taking either
Valentina or nothing just because I feel
like the line has moved so much but if
Alexa Grosso pulls this off wow we are
gonna have a lot to talk about because
grassa will have really solidified
herself as one of the top fighters in
the game taking out Valentina twice
that’ll be something to talk about we
will look back on it next week and then
of course we will be talking about all
of the rest of the action coming up in
2023. appreciate the watch hopefully you
got some good information and come back
and see us next time enjoy the fights
goodbye
