Noche UFC Best Bets: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Breakdown


In this article, we will be discussing the upcoming Noche UFC event and providing our best bets for the fights. We will be focusing on the matchup between Alex Reyes and Charlie Campbell, as well as the fight between Josephine Knutson and Marnick.

Alex Reyes vs Charlie Campbell

Alex Reyes is making his debut in the UFC on short notice, and he will be facing a tough opponent in Charlie Campbell. Reyes has shown vulnerability in the past, and Campbell is known for his finishing ability. With 13 finishes in his career, Campbell has the potential to catch Reyes and secure a victory.

While Reyes may have the opportunity to surprise people and turn back the clock, it is unlikely that he will be able to withstand the damage that Campbell can deliver. Campbell is the more experienced fighter and has shown his ability to finish his opponents. Therefore, our official pick for this fight is Charlie Campbell to win. However, we advise against parlaying him at -440 odds. Instead, we recommend keeping an eye out for prop bets, such as early round finishes or a knockout victory.

Josephine Knutson vs Marnick

Josephine Knutson is set to face Marnick in what should be an interesting matchup. Knutson is three years younger than her opponent and has shown good fight IQ in her previous bouts. However, she has struggled to capitalize on opportunities to finish her opponents.

Marnick, on the other hand, has not been impressive in her recent fights. She has shown weaknesses in her striking and has been vulnerable to being finished. Knutson’s proficiency in grappling could be a key factor in this fight, as she has the ability to control her opponents against the cage.

Despite the high odds of -575 for Knutson, we believe she is the safer pick in this matchup. However, we advise against betting on her at such steep odds. Instead, consider parlaying her with another fighter or looking for prop bets like over 2.5 rounds at -210.


In conclusion, we believe Charlie Campbell has the advantage in his fight against Alex Reyes. Campbell’s finishing ability and experience make him the more likely winner. As for Josephine Knutson, she should have the edge over Marnick due to her grappling skills. However, we caution against betting on her at -575 odds. Look for safer betting options like parlaying her with another fighter or exploring prop bets.

Remember to always gamble responsibly and consider your bankroll when placing bets. Good luck!

welcome to Chronic combat conversations a live look at our Best Bets picks and
predictions for every UFC event with your hosts TB scouting MMA and the guru
back again for Noche UFC aliba we’ve got
Alexa Grosso defending her flyweight championship against The Perennial
flyweight I mean she’s up there right I mean good Lord Contender Champion
forever go we could call it Flyway goat let’s do it let’s let’s go with goat Valentina the bullet chevchenko awesome
Mexican Independence Day Card cannot remember the last time they did a fight
night with a title fight it’s been a long time I’m thinking maybe a fly white title was done on a fight night but
before we can get into my ramblings and this unbelievable card we actually got
El Chapo out of prison sprung them out out specifically for this pay-per-view
they locked them up for robbing The Bookies we got best fight picks in the house Dan Levy
dude my buddy thanks so much for being here man my pleasure man I don’t know
about this year but last year definitely um but it’s funny because I just read that El Chapo’s wife got released from
prison and when they asked her you know trying to get like some details she said that she had no idea that her husband
was a drug lord and she had never seen him do anything wrong so that’s a keeper right there that’s a keeper that’s how
you you want one that’s ride or die yeah I was gonna say a pause I ain’t seen
nothing what are you talking I have no idea what marijuana smells like what are you I don’t even know how could I
possibly have told I love it or is it Danilo Cavo kante
recently recaptured a lot of excitement here anybody down to do the time for
their man like I’ll drink to you all right so anyways here we go before we get completely off the rails it’s noce
uh Guru told us arriba baby let’s get it popping before we do that though the one thing I do have to ask if you haven’t
done so already please follow our amazing guest host Tonight Mr at best
fight picks on Twitter half the battle podcast on YouTube he’s amazing one of The Inspirations for starting our show
uh and please if you haven’t done so already you’re already here please throw a like on the video I know that not
everybody in here has done that so far and please if you haven’t done so subscribe to the channel we’re so close
to 500 been putting in the work for so long consistently and all we ask but listen we like we love to have a good
time uh but you know help support the free content uh aside from that now that I’ve bored everybody let’s get to what
everybody came for we got the Flyway Championship rematch
we got Alexa Grosso La Loba versus Valentina bullet chefchenko oh man
cannot wait for this one I mean listen you got one of the biggest simps out there when it comes to Alexa Grosso in
TV scouting MMA so I’ll put it that way but I I did take the shot I was a little sketched about it I did take a small
little shot last time in their matchup the line here though we’re at plus 142 Grosso minus 170 chefchenko over four
and a half and minus 160 under four and a half at Plus 124. I think this is more um more Alexa
Grosso territory I think a lot of the tentativeness that we saw in the first fight from the
wrestling exchanges I think now that she knows she can kind of withstand those she’s not gonna get as kind of scared
off of the front foot tactics that she used in round one in their first fight she was quicker to the punch Landing
combos in the pocket visually hurting chefchenko on the feet um but then round two and round three come around
chefchenko starts getting the top control grozo survives does well to stand up it’s just chefchenko
has a way of really wearing on her opponents physically it just so happened she made this the exact mistake that
Grasso Was preparing for in round four would have been 2-2 given a back take and back control to close out around
either way I think we had an even fight going it’s around five and uh yeah I think Grasso maybe she doesn’t get the
finish this time but I have a feeling that chefchenko is going to be a bit wary to enter some of
the the grappling exchanges it’s going to be a bit wary to throw those spinning techniques this time around uh let Alexa
Grosso you know capitalize once again I know the line moved away from where it opened um you’re getting probably the worst of
it that you possibly could at the moment but I’m riding with the Grosso train I think that this is more Leon Edwards
Usman three than it is um than it is chefchenko coming back to get her title
I think it goes the distance I think it could be a relatively unexciting fight a lot of chefchenko’s fights are quite
frankly uh but Grosso knows how to bring it so I I like her here man I could be totally wrong shout out everybody in the
chat you guys are incredible keep it up we’ll get back to you soon but Guru what do you got here in this Main Event
because I’m going with Grosso the dog my question my thought is is like how did you guys have that fight being scored
let’s say the you know finish doesn’t happen right when she takes the back there is it to me it’s basically I guess after
the back take even though Chev had landed more strikes throughout round four I mean after the back take you
gotta figure that that it’s then 2-2 going into round five and like you’re
saying TB I I think we could very well be posed with a a similar scenario come
this Saturday where it’s a very close fight um Grasso showed uh real success with
her with her Jabs and just honestly just her boxing and striking in general and chefchenko kind of didn’t
really have as much of an answer for that her jab herself was actually starting to touch up Grosso towards
those later rounds and um obviously her wrestling is the big wrinkle Grosso seemed to struggle kind of getting up
off her back at times and uh that would be the path for Chev I’m just not sure
you know she didn’t really have as much success with it as she would have liked to in that first fight so I’m not sure
that like you’re saying so adequately put DB that if Grosso was even more prepared for
that now chefchenko was was uh telegraphing them before so I just think
that she’s going to be tentative and nervous to uh to trade and get in some trouble here 35 years old continuing uh
the d-line did she I’m moving up right I think that there’s a pretty clear path for her for
uh even title contention possibly with moving up and not sacrificing her body too much with the
weight cut and then I do love the mental aspect that you said TB
um as well just the kind of the the possible similarities to the Usman fight
which is just so so interesting that I just think that maybe she just has her number and in that respect and then I
think she can just get it done I think it’s a tough match up for shivchenko especially at this stage in her career
so give me the dog in Grasso and um I mean fight Going the Distance is minus
130. I mean in a flyweight fight even if it’s five rounds I still think that that
there’s some value there so I like that and uh [ __ ] why not why not just even go
a little a little sprinkle on a on a prop just for funsies how about plus 250 Grosso around 4-5 decision cover all my
bases but please let’s hand it off to El Chapo himself before his wife gets
pissed what uh odds did you get at TB on Alexa yeah it’s I’m the I’m the dumb guy that
threw down a plus 140 and had a kick back to plus 142. so um about as bad as it gets but I mean
quite frankly I didn’t like break the bank on it uh I have one bigger bet so
far um which we’ll get to but uh yeah I I think Grosso is worth like a couple
units I’m not saying it’s like a a Best Bet ever in my life but I like how it’s going here what do you think Dad I mean
I get the angle in terms of like you know the long reigning Champion when they lose their belt they don’t often get that belt back but I would not
compare it to the uzuman fight uh besides it being you know a championship situation because Guzman got head kicked
into The Fifth Dimension like that’s fair you’re never gonna recover from that psychologically let alone your chin
whereas Valentina got submitted like that’s something that’s fair you can fix
you know yeah don’t throw that [ __ ] kick again and chances are you’re not getting your back taken so
and just think about this like when Usman came back he was completely gunshot because I mean you know the PTSD
from getting I mean that wasn’t just any knockout that Leon landed on him man it wasn’t like a like a little flash
knock down you know uh let’s call a little early stoppage that was a head
kick knockout dude will never be the same again what is this I mean Valentina
was up on the cards 2-1 um the big debate is what would the score be had she knock on submitted well
she was winning the entire round but she threw the kick and credit to I saw someone in the comments say she slipped she did not slip she threw the kick and
while her back was facing Alexa Alexa jumped on the back took it expertly and
man y’all saw the color of uh valentina’s face purple right yeah in
that picture like that squeeze because it like seemed almost like a neck crank more than a rear naked choke um but did
you see that Jesus did you see the color of her jaw when Grasso let go of the grip she had
on her chin like bouncing his face was red and then the the the that exactly
that that’s what I’m talking about but the reason why it seemed like more not that this is nitpicking they seem more
like a crank than a choke was because if it was a choke and she was in it for that long she would have went to sleep
right so yeah credits of Valentina she was tucking her chin and then also credit to Alexa her grip must be deadly
to get Valentina to tap to that um yeah I mean I could realistically see it
going either way I’m just kind of bitter I didn’t get the plus 200 on Alexa the plus 190 or or you can be one of these
guys that post like a plus 190 or plus 200 like today when that line hasn’t
been around for like two weeks so Props to you for actually like you know giving out a line that’s available but I’m
gonna go on the opposite side I’m gonna go Valentina um I hope I’m wrong because you know Mexican Independence Day you’d
love to see Alexa win and she’s got a more exciting fighting style but I’m gonna go Valentina here
yeah and conspiracy theory um UFC 5 cover uh now vacant 135 action
chefchenko moved down from 135 after losing to Nunes twice now that she’s gone could we see chefchenko make the
move up if she’s not successful here uh trying to reclaim the 125 belt is 135 an option for her going forward absolutely
why not yeah absolutely I mean the I think win or lose I think she moves up
uh who else is there left for her to fight if she wins what are you gonna run it back a third time no there’s Aaron
blanchfield and Manon Fiora she doesn’t want it that’s what I’m saying she doesn’t want any piece of that why not
just kind of Jon Jones just write off I don’t want to fight you here John Joseph
what I said she didn’t choose to give up the belt and move up though that’s a little different than Jon Jones well I’m just
if she wins it that’s what I’m saying she’s gonna win it and choose to go with
the belt and move up what like verbatim like calm down ladies
uh he already broke up our bed MMA now
that was what I was saying anyway ways but did you notice the TV nickname on the first fight here no
what though yeah what the [ __ ] is yeah what the [ __ ] is La Loba well you just added that in that’s not her hell
yeah no she doesn’t have it for what the [ __ ] is she used to train out of Lobo Jim so I
figured it was a good one no I’m surprised you didn’t [ __ ] about it until I brought it up I was about to
look it up to see if it was real or not it’s not you’re lame anyways we got you can’t be in the truck we got Kevin the
Trailblazer Holland or is it big mouth now I don’t know he’s not Elena
it’s Trailblazer oh my God versus Jack Della madalena who also didn’t have a
nickname so I go JDM here uh we got the 30 year old Holland at plus 124. Jack
Della madalena at -148 uh I mean Holland’s gonna have a four inch height
eight inch reach advantage and he’s someone that knows what to do with it um then again uh whenever he’s face
someone that that is able to kind of work the body close the distance get in try to clinch take down yeah that’s
definitely definitely happened before so I will say um the things that I’ve noticed uh
looking into this fight is that Kevin Holland seems to be a little bit more game plan specific in his in his last
two fights um you know against um in his last fight against kiesa I Love
How He adjusted to a wider lower stance to kind of counter some of the takedown entries he was ready with the uppercuts
he was ready with the timing on the knees um I really like that he seemed to have a little bit more of like a plan going
into that fight it looked like and when the wrestler tried to get wrestling he used those weapons to his
advantage and he dropped kiesa with the knee first before sinking in the choke
um Jack Dylan made Elena that’s not the game plan he’s going to use he’s not going for takedown so Kevin Holland at
170 has faced guys at 185 that have been looking to take him down continually to not deal with his game plan on the feet
I mean Jack Della should be clean and safe to kind of get in work some combos but
I don’t trust um I don’t trust him to do it cleanly I I feel like seeing guys like angelosa have even a level of
success from distance um Landing about 60 to 70 strikes out of 180. that’s a solid enough success for a
guy like angelosa to where now you’re facing a better athlete and a bigger guy in Kevin Holland that is a better
distance Striker I think Jack Dell is actually going to get touched up a bit in this fight I do think his his
durability is is great at this point um he does have a couple finished losses to start his career but we haven’t seen
any concerns from that going forward but listen I mean boxing up Pete Rodriguez um boxing up other guys what bustle half
is I mean I know he shot 20 takedowns on him but the dude has zero distance man nobody talks [ __ ] about Danny hot
chocolate Roberts but me okay that guy is tread that he is one bottom of the
barrel so that’s kind of the point here maybe JDM can take this step up but my
guy it’s not just a step it’s like two steps up even baselhoff as listen that
dude’s a [ __ ] Savage and fighting that guy with a full Camp I’m sure is tough but short notice he comes ahead of
steel head of steam you know kind of trying to battle you over throwing heavy be strikes and trying to take you down
obviously different completely different match up here in Kevin Holland but just the idea the Acumen like you’re going to
tell me that Randy Brown is the best guy he’s fought like I had to listen to random cappers telling me that Randy
Brown was gonna knock him out but now he was good value at plus 200. I’m like no he’s a terrible Striker he’s got no
chance and you watch it it’s made him do the chicken dance inside him in two minutes it was bad Kevin Holland has
much much more durability than that much more athleticism than that much more
violence on the feet than that power coming back his way as well
um statistic wise JDM does seem to have the uh Power Advantage the speed Advan
the uh sorry not the speed advantage that’s what I think is going to be the difference in this fight is who has the
speed Advantage but B statistics Jack also lands a little bit more but you also have to factor in level of
competition Kevin Holland wins rounds one and arguably round two versus Wonder Boy Dan
Levy’s favorite fighter before uh before breaking his hand so wonderful nights yeah
no he only makes commercials with Kevin Holland so and I actually did not
wrestle exactly first off over two and a half is plus money I think that’s a
great angle I even if you can get like fight to start round three like even money I like that too
um but I’m gonna take the dog shot in Kevin Holland sure Jack Della could be the new kid on the Block but
unless Kevin is just stupid or gets hurt early which I guess is possible both are
and I I like him to you know do you have a clinical striking battle
like he did with Wonder Boy and and come out on top maybe he loses around 29-28
let’s go Kevin Holland I’ll take the plus money um Dan what do you what do you think I’m
sure you don’t give much credits to The Wonder Boy fight though so I wonder what beat the living [ __ ] out of Kevin
Holland that was not a clinical back and forth that was a one-sided beat down and Wonder Boys Swang that and he broke his
hand for sure I mean I’ve seen dudes win fights with broken hands I’ve seen dudes win fights
with pulled groins like so you know I mean bottom line hit him with your groin I don’t care exactly a 40 year old uh
beat Kevin Holland not that long ago the same 40 year old that’s ducking everybody else in the division and uh TV
wants to you know bring up that angelusa had a couple seconds of success against uh JDM but he refuses to bring up that
fair and Stewart went to a split decision with Kevin Holland and when he was wrestling and you guys are talking
about oh a British guy had wrestling success is that what you’re telling me and you guys want to talk about if Kevin
Collins since he’s not even gonna wrestle britishly oh hold on don’t interrupt me
since when is Kevin Holland fight smart and this whole uh stuff about oh Kevin
Hollins gonna wrestle since when is Kevin Holland wrestle Kevin Hollins the one that gets taken down a million times
every single fight so to me this fight comes down to what range this fight takes place in and up close I think JDM
is gonna box this man’s liver and face off if JDM wants to fight at distance
you know against a dude with a 8 inch reach Advantage well then he deserves to uh he deserves to get his ass whooped
you know and we understand that Kevin Holland’s very dangerous here but I moved in on Jack at plus 100 and you
know the market went you know this time I got the best of it I was happy you know he’s like minus 150 now I can hedge
out now or I can you know guarantee myself a profit or a break
even but I ain’t doing all that I’m gonna ride this one out and I think that you know uh jdm’s gonna March this man
down and put it on him Kevin Holland does not like it when you put it on him Kevin Holland does really well when he’s
up there against older guys you want to bring up Pete Rodriguez but you don’t want to bring a brandy Brown like what
is this man like the guys that Kevin Holland beats are on their way out they
got names pawns and nibios got a name Tim Means has a name Alex cowboy has a name but they’re all on their way out
you know what I’m saying like Kevin Holland doesn’t win those Prospect Showdown matches
um and I don’t think he’s gonna win this one either so I got JDM here I can’t hate the logic and I can’t hate
the play he’s a man of principle and closing line value so what can I say to that what Prospect fight has he really
fought though uh Brennan would be one of them Marvin the Tori Kyle docus Brendan Allen yeah
um Kyle Dawkins is a no contest he got dropped and choked out by Kyle
Bacchus that’s a really bad look right listen
I I get it I get it all I do and I’m a man who had reversed clv on Kevin
Holland because I’m a dumbass I saw minus 125 somewhere plus 100 elsewhere I took the plus 100 and here we are plus
124. so well at least at least again at least you’re not posting you know uh you
know [ __ ] some line that is long gone you know on Kevin Han like some of these other guys at least you’re being honest
about what you got so respect yeah no I think you bring I think you bring up a
point that I was maybe misconsidering and it’s and it’s kind of obvious it’s that yeah if if it takes place a
kickboxing range then yeah Jack Dell is an idiot and he’s gonna get out pointed but if Jack Dell is smart and a good
technical fighter which he has shown through everything that he’s done that he is then why wouldn’t he press closer
try to get inside and and start hurting Kevin who’s who you watch versus a 40 year old Wonder Boy start dancing around
the cage and and even you know uncomfortable like this whole Kevin Holland wrestling thing he got on top of
Wonder Boy twice like he didn’t even have to take him down and he guess what he does he gets back up and tells him no
get back up so you can keep beating the [ __ ] out of me so the only way I see Kevin Holland having success on the mat
here is if he drops Jack Della and snatches a neck or if he hurts Della and
Della shoots for a sloppy shot snatches a neck from there bringing up the kiessa fight like bro the kiessa looked like he
wanted a number one did kiessa look like he wanted to fight that night number two did kiesta even throw a punch number
three if kiessa did throw a punch does kiessa have punching power like yeah so like when was the last time kiessa
wanted to fight well that’s fair I think I think the only point I was taking out of that
fight was that it seemed like he came in with a little bit of a better game plan uh and and that it looked like he
prepared specifically for the match up there I got to imagine and and to your point like you said he ended up on top
of Wonder Boy at times I think Jack Della is going to try to close that distance if it gets in there there are going to be opportunities for for
Holland to use a trip or two do I think he actually does it no that’s the whole point I didn’t even bring that up on my
breakdown I don’t yeah I don’t personally think that and I don’t want anybody to think that I’m picking Kevin
Holland or like Kevin Hahn for some sort of wrestling advantage that I think he’s gonna go for takedowns like that’s not
at all what I was looking for which is why again to you to your point then I kind of like the uh just the thought of
the attritional getting close that that could be tough for Holland yeah ultimately my my plus money play
came down to the uh the height size athleticism better competition and the
the naturally bigger guy with uh with a lot more wealth of UFC experience but I
respect the hell out of Dan Levy’s play I respect the hell that he came out of our on our podcast and he’s been on the opposite side on the first two so you
know he’s not changing his picks for us you know and that’s the other part about us is that we’re going to stay true to what we got yeah
it’s not it’s not about me trying to convince you to change your pick I’ve been sketched out I’ve been sketched out
all week so don’t be surprised to see me cash out my Kevin Hall and then pick Jack Della it’s more it’s more about the
logic for me like why would you even bring up Rodriguez when this guy’s been in there with Randy Brown like you don’t
understand what I’m saying and then why would you bring up angelusa’s two seconds of success and then conveniently
ignore you know guys like Darren Stewart arguably beating Kevin Holland right I
would like to what I have an issue with I would like to say as you’ve seen multiple times Guru did interrupt me in
the middle of my breakdown and then passed off to you I interrupted me as well you better stop doing that that’s what I’m saying gurus Guru is a man of
interruption so we’re gonna move on to the next fight before he interrupts me before then real quick um my food just
arrived let me just go grab it but y’all start without me all right I’ll be right back yes sir all right we got
El Nino problema Raul Rosas Jr versus the tear bear Terence Mitchell and
that’s his nickname on topology because UFC ain’t giving you one um that is not a TB nickname believe it
or not mine is 750 for El Nino problema and plus 525 for the should I be in the
UFC Terror bear um so listen Terence is going to have a one inch height seven inch reach
Advantage but I mean we’re talking Alaska FC here and we’re talking a guy that was relying on his submission
prowess in Alaska FC I mean Raul Rosas Jr you [ __ ] listen man he’s got the
legitimate skills the problem is he doesn’t have like the athleticism and and the cardio to outwork a fully grown
man for three rounds but we saw him win round one pretty cleanly against Christian Rodriguez the issue is he
didn’t have the ability to kind of keep up that pace and and athleticism and pressure against the guy that had the
right amount of experience and skill I don’t think Terence Mitchell quite meets that uh that that low level
um to of like entry-level skill to like give Raul Ross a real problem here
um I got Rosas it’s round one it’s probably submission um
but maybe you find a round one or round two prop find one small parlay to add Rosas as a
money line piece if like you’re that degenerate and desperate I think I did so like minus 550
um so I’ll post that play now and tell you guys to follow it the Dan Levy favorite um but yeah I mean Guru
you got anything different on the Rosa side here there’s really not much I like from a gambling perspective at all on
this fight um obviously has a an incredible submission
grappling Acumen so to speak but I I just especially in his last fight for Christian Rodriguez yes like you said he
win wins on run but doesn’t really look very impressive otherwise and uh
you know just very you know Green he’s still working on developing his skills making him well
polished and well-rounded enough to be an actual MMA fighter I’m not really sure Terence Mitchell um has ever been
UFC caliber uh I don’t think he is what’s very interesting in this fight
and the only thing I may take a sprinkle on is like I almost kind of like the over one and a half and the reason why
is like it’s the the durability problem of of Terence Mitchell could be
overstated here and the fact that yeah he’s been knocked out with striking barrages of striking from kaikar French
who’s hits really hard and then Cameron Simon who’s a great technical kickboxer
striker I’m gonna be the one that interrupts you now sure Cameron Simon didn’t knock him
out standing Cameron Simon took his back and pounded him out right so I mean again so taking his back and
choking him out is certainly an ish is a is certainly there I’m not sure that taking him down and pounding him out for
Rosas is as likely because it’s just not he he’s he’s got all these submission
wins I mean he’s got 1K I’m sure it’s a possibility but it’s not he may give up control my thought with Terence Mitchell
is maybe he’s got decent enough submission skills to last over one and a half hey fight to start round two might
be [ __ ] is gonna be plus money so maybe just maybe I feed the narrative with that but that’s the only like
interesting way I have of handicapping this fight otherwise I mean what’s what’s wrong with us round one TV like
minus 200 like I I don’t I don’t care for it well quite frankly I mean
DraftKings and everyone has been a bunch of [ __ ] this week like we literally just got odds for these top three fights
all around like in a couple hours before we started so right now everyone is minus 200. it’s minus 195. I
literally I called it I’m I’m I mean they call me the guru for a reason you know what I’m saying so like I I don’t I
don’t care for rosehaus round two minus 200 like that’s shitty to me I almost rather take a couch cushion sprinkle on
a fight to start round two at plus 164. five minutes that this guy
stinks and the other guy is decent enough submission defense but otherwise yeah whatever Raul sauce put them in all
your parlays I’m I’m amazing I mean I don’t really like it it’s fine
I guess it’s my turn Daniel what do you got here my friend listen man everyone talking about how Raul Rosa’s cardio
sucks they’re full of [ __ ] because on Contender series he went all three rounds at a ridiculous pace and you look
completely fine the issue was that you fought this complete bum named Jay Perrin at like 18 years old he destroyed
Jay Perrin on a pay-per-view card not at the Apex in front of a lot of people and afterwards you know you go back to high
school after choking that guy out everyone’s kissing your ass you think you’re you know God’s gift to fighting
he had to get humbled and Christian Rodriguez is an absolute Savage Christian Rodriguez is about to fight Cameron Simon on uh Prospect vs Prospect
Showdown type fight right so that wasn’t a cardio issue that was more of he fought you know a real guy that night he
just wasn’t ready for him but this guy Terence Mitchell I mean listen man he
comes from the Alaska FC scene we know that’s one of the worst scenes around and it’s probably gonna be a one back
take and the fight is over shortly after situation so yeah obviously I got roses here but I can’t do anything with the
price so you know props to y’all that got in early and uh it’s a pass for me
I’m about to drop my my three leg parlay that has Rosa says the minus 550 leg in it I’m gonna put it out
uh but yeah round one submission is even money you get a parlay it the whole [ __ ] way to
even get there so yeah I guess that would maybe be the the
obvious even money layup but uh I kind of wish I had taken that
philosophy with the Tyson Pedro fight you know round one finish plus 330 for Tyson it’s his way to finish the fights
it’s a way to win I would like to say in all fairness uh yesterday I did post I had one parlay for Noche UFC and it had
Rosas at -550 in it so yesterday see that’s a sick number Dan’s Dan’s
munching on uh Peruvian food I would assume love that good man so minus yeah
you got to get them all the top baby so here we go we got Daniel Zell Huber
Golden Boy versus Christos the Spartan yagos uh minus 285 for Golden Boy plus
230 for the Spartan uh the over two and a half plus 105 under two and a half minus 135
I would say I came into this fight a little a little trepidatious about uh the idea of zel Huber facing like the
first kind of volume wrestler that he would face but then I realized like Chris Crystal’s yagos is really only
good for like one round of that cardio and wrestling and I don’t think Daniel zellhuber is
getting finished by Chris dos yagos uh let’s be real here I mean you got the the guy that’s nine years younger
um three inches taller has a six inch reach advantage I know I haven’t seen
him tested by the highest level of competition from a wrestling perspective but I know yagos isn’t good for it for
more than one round so I got zel Huber here he’s the second leg or one of the legs
um I have one parlay that has Zell Huber I have one parlay that has uh Raul Rosas
and I’ll let you guys know the other two legs coming up yeah no I
kind of felt similarly I still have a bad taste in my mouth from Zell Huber’s uh UFC debut versus Trey Ogden one of
the worst fights I’ve ever seen uh just completely uh a dud maybe a mental lapse
I really like where zellhuber’s training with uh the new champ again uh extreme
Couture Eric nixik so with him in his corner I feel really really confident
that they’re gonna be ready for whatever yagos is bringing and uh again DB you
said it perfectly yagos is good for a round I think uh zohuber is going to survive at least that long
uh he may even still win round one so his his round one versus land of anata
was his best round so how did that not get stopped yeah so like if you can if you can take his best round away from
gagos like uh-uh not not gonna be good so just survive uh just don’t give up a
random like rear naked choke in your back just just be all right and can we just be real about that Ricky Glenn fight like that was like the MMA Gods
flipping the script on him and and he also looked like [ __ ] and didn’t want to be I don’t know so I like cell Huber he
is the first Lego of my completely separate parlay from TB because you know
Dan Levy broke us apart so Fedora what do you got you know these
guys share a Facebook account too then and the picture is us at a UFC
event together so yeah yeah I was joking I’m guessing he’s I’m guessing he’s
serious huh but uh no but uh well The Chronic combat Facebook that’s different
that’s different oh so they do have a joint Facebook account well we have a joint podcast so I mean if I join
Instagram um we have a joint urinal you know whatever yeah I bet you do so uh listen
man I’m not gonna discredit Chris those giago’s win against Ricky Glenn I mean he [ __ ] caught him with a nasty left
hook man that was disgusting the guy’s been in the UFC a long time credit to him he’s a very athletic guy he’s a
seasoned guy he’s been in there with real guys he’s been in there with Oliveira Charles Oliveira with sarukian
with Gilbert Burns and I granted all those guys beat him but uh I mean I just kind of chalked down that Ogden fight to
a debut stun I mean Tyler Santos made a debut stun against Mario Romero Barella too right like that [ __ ] happens from
time to time I mean did you walk away from that fight thinking man Trey Ogden’s about to be a top 15 guy no you
just said wow this kid threw zero strikes in Ogden through two strikes therefore Ogden one right same thing
with barela and Santa so and then the next fight against Lando we saw the guy
that we originally uh you know scouted the the big time Prospect right and that
should have been a first round finish like you said 100 percent um yeah I mean listen I think that here
he’s gonna get back to his you know his flashy ways and I think he’s going to be
a little bit too long for Christos gallagos hopefully crystals doesn’t have any vet tactics waiting for him but I
think that so Hoover I mean I took him at minus 220 straight to win two units and uh you know I should put I should
post that line I should go delete my tweet and post that line now right TV but uh get out there baby
when it was minus 220 we got the best of it and uh let’s get it kid smart man right there once again a man
of principle end of clv you gotta love it a principle not preference yeah
oh my gosh well what I will say though also like Zach from our buddy four ounce of Freedom says dan does have the finest
taste in food also so always posting the the finest you know what is it you go to your all you can eat buffets before the
uh before the fight sometimes or you go to the Peruvian place what do we get there because you’re all over man
you say wanna what did we get to eat today I got a turkey wrap with mac and with
this like broccoli that’s seasoned very interestingly very nice very fun parmesan lemon garlic and like
breadcrumbs I’m a very big fan of broccoli believe it or not so I like Greenery here on chronic combat so
whatever when it’s done right for sure all right here we go that’s what we got
from the side oh my word all right we got Fernando El
Valiente Padilla versus Kyle monster Nelson uh friend Fernando coming in at
minus 250. uh The Monster at Plus 205. uh I was kind of looking back at Kyle
monster Nelson’s last fight you know seeing where I went wrong with Blake Builder and like the dude was like three
inches shorter giving up a couple inches reached to Kyle Nelson and I looked I was like oh I’m curious what’s Fernando
Padilla doing oh my God he’s got two inches of height and five inches of reach on Nelson like does Blake Builder even belong in the in the 145 division
against Real Fighters I think that was one of my takeaways but then my other takeaway is well Padilla passed the do I
have enough power to knock out Julian orosa in round one test because if you can it gets sketchy but if you have real
power you can knock out Julian erosa in round one so he passed that test for me and I’ve seen him fight
um Good Guys on the regional scene yes he’s had some struggles coming up here or there for decision losses but I feel
like Kyle Nelson’s win equity in this fight is gonna be what wrestling here
with cardio what output Landing a big shot on Padilla the guy that’s never been knocked out before and has the
reach Advantage uh Padilla is going to be another leg in the parlay so throw him in there I really like him to get
the finish and win decisively and even if he can’t finish the guy that’s two and four in the UFC and his win came
against you know one of the smaller guys in the division last time now Nelson’s facing someone a lot bigger here
um well at least from a reach perspective because I mean you could see like Kyle Nelson’s pretty filled out but I mean Padilla I think can do everything
to keep this guy at range and not let him get going um I like him inside the distance I like
Padilla to to win as part of the parlay Guru what do you got going on yeah I do
really like Padilla here Nelson does have a little bit of sketch factor to me just because again he did
stick it out verse Blake Builder who again I I didn’t really think that he would I didn’t think he would do it uh
the the pace and pressure uh put Builder off and uh Builder had a you know an off night he was very inaccurate and uh he’s
a guy whose cardio is usually uh very much on point was not so yeah Kyle was
the better man that night and now he’s got a tough fight and an upper coming versus Fernando Padilla
um do I think the Juliano Rosa stoppage was early harosa was basically dead and we’ve seen
him die a million times so I’m okay with it especially since I bet Padilla round one but I could see where like you
violence violence he’s still alive like Arosa was pretty pissed and he was standing so like I get it but I’m not
mad at it personally would be curious how you guys feel um would love to see him knock out
Nelson here Nelson’s been knocked out by Diego fajaya from gravity or ground and
pound so not exactly the same thing and and a billy Q fight was crazy right
Billy Q breaks him with Pace I don’t know how uh round three even starts and
uh it probably shouldn’t have because like one punch and he’s he’s good he’s good on that so yeah I kind of see a
similar thing happening with uh Padilla’s Pace he’s a little bit more patient in just kind of how he he’s like
he’s he’s a Controlled Chaos is how I’d like to describe him but still Technical and very dangerous
so not sure that Kyle can get it done so let’s take Padilla he’s not in this
parlay I have specifically but he might be in a different one I like I you know let’s put him in a different parlay
let’s let’s get that one cooking I mean I’ll go Padilla here because I pick against Kyle Nelson every single
fight but I’m not sold on Padilla like you guys are man like uh if you haven’t figured out how to knock out Julian
erosa yet there’s an issue not to mention it wasn’t that long ago that Spike Carlisle was grinding this guy out
this guy’s got a losing record when fights go to decision so you know the jury’s still out on him right like he’s
tough he’s long and he’s down to brawl but I’m not really sure what else he brings to the table that might be enough
to win here but at this point like Nelson was the guy that I I said at one point like yeah this guy won’t be in the
UFC this time next year and he’s been in the UFC since 2018 so he’s proven me wrong and he’s upset two prospects in a
row like the duo fight I thought he lost but he came out with a draw the Builder five Builder was The Undefeated Prospect
uh Padilla he’s more of a vet than a prospect he’s a young vet right but when you look at his record like he’s he’s
been around the block for a long time but I think that
I’m just not that sold on Padilla man to lay a price like this I’ll pick him but I’m not interested in laying a price
like what has he proven I he’s his to his losses man his losses are of course
our decisions but they’re to dogs right Spike Carlisle sure that guy’s not a great Striker but he’s an insane volume
wrestler that has you know Contin this is uh you know who has had cardio at
different levels right obviously he can gas out when he pushes too high of a pace and then of course there’s other
loss cffc 2017 to Dan 50k ige so 50k ige
is not finishing you you’re tough as nails so and what’s Dan gonna do he’s gonna grind you out Nelson is not
looking in any way shape or form to try to Tire Padilla’s arms out with the
grappling so if you’re gonna try to stand and bang with this guy or even just strike with him at all I think he’s
got the speed the power and the the size
and it’s going to I think it’s gonna be a problem for Nelson well I mean it was only it was only two fights ago that
Kyle Nelson landed five takedowns on duho Choi so uh maybe he will look to grind you out
yeah I would actually be interested in the idea that Padilla might sink in a submission uh eight submission wins and
if Kyle Nelson shooting desperately uh could be an interesting like high value
prop Play It’s just uh DraftKings has not decided to give me an option yet so I can’t tell you guys what the number
actually is uh but yeah listen uh we’re gonna move on to our next fight here I think that’s
365 is going to have a number not because they don’t have specific uh props it’s only combo methods so anyways
please like And subscribe if you haven’t done so already our amazing uh guest host Daniel Levy at best fight picks on
the socials make sure you’re following half the battle if you somehow aren’t already you obviously messed up but you
can still fix that mistake if you’re watching our show without knowing what half the battle is um but yeah and if you haven’t done it
on this channel please like it helps the algorithm so much there’s definitely more people in the chat right now that have actually thrown a like so like do
your job come on it’s free it doesn’t cost you anything and uh subscribe to the show uh we are going to move along
now to our next before you do that they’re giving that’s I know you’re so
annoyed at me Padilla they’re giving Padilla uh by finish essentially since you are of course correct they’re giving
Padilla by finish at plus 100 on bet365. cool not even the proper S4 uh so Lupita
actually I did say I liked him inside you wanted submission and you were correct and that they don’t give a a
specific position yeah you’re correct so so the Finish is plus a hundred so I
apologize all right so we got our next fight here we got Lupita godinez loopy I was gonna do it
Opposite because UFC stats like her name is Loopy but I decided you know we’ll keep it with her actual nickname and the
nickname spot and at least read honestly I couldn’t come up with anything good but it’s at least bag of milk read uh
plus 340 versus Lupi godinous and minus 440. um I mean she’s as pale as I am you know
it’s it’s not it’s not great I’m doing my best here okay um loopy is gonna actually be giving up an
inch of height two inches of reach and I think she’s gonna be the worst striker in this matchup it’s just we all know how you beat Elise
Reed it’s you use your offensive wrestling your takedowns and then you finish her with ground and pounder
submission so if you’re playing loopy godinez it needs to be inside the distance
um 100 and honestly I think if this fight is going and it’s not ending I kind of
almost favor at least Reed in that in that case um I’m not crazy enough to like pick her straight up or or play her money line
but I will not throw caution to the win and I’m not gonna parlay loopy it’s about finding the specific prop that’s
gonna work it’s like um a round one submission or a round to you know maybe she struggles around
maybe a round two submission like you have to get extremely cute here and keep it extremely small I mean Loopy’s the pick because she uses the game plan
that’s gonna work she should win um she’s been training with the champ um that I can’t in my right mind pick
read but I think she’s the better Striker um loopy by wrestling Guru what do you got
I’m I’m the more the more you were talking about it I’m actually getting freaked out like you I didn’t want a
parlay loopy at all to begin with just keep keep that in mind I might not even pick loopy it’s a short notice fight she
doesn’t she has two submission wins none at the UFC level so it’s like oh what
I’m sorry it’s one at the UFC level with it’s her debut no it’s still not it was her second fight versus Juarez because
she fought Pena uh so she fights uh she submits uh Silvana Juarez who’s awful
just a complete Striker and with no grappling so
if she can get this sub like you’re saying early then that’s really her path if it goes anywhere past round one I get
really scared because at least read like you said I do agree has the better striking and certainly has the cardio
Advantage so if she and she’s also had suspect fight IQ right there was no
reason for loopy not to Grapple Rose Angela hill we all thought she was and that was the last time she was a heavy
favorite minus 300 and she didn’t grapple at all and then she lost the
fight so if she doesn’t grapple for some reason here would it be like somehow
that surprising I I don’t I don’t know because I don’t trust her so minus 440 I’m I’m just
super not interested I almost kind of want to look the dog way it’s like is has Sean Strickland taught us anything
it’s like the line has to kind of tip our hand at some point like we just kind of like I mean if that’s the case you’re
betting Terence Mitchell no no that’s that’s right okay so it’s not no so it’s not just blind the line no it’s not
anything there has to be of course I I didn’t start it with that I’m I’m giving
a handicap I think she’s got a chance I think she’s live and of course you know when we look back Captain hindsight of
course Sean Strickland was live especially if he wasn’t getting finished so did anybody think that he had the
finishing Equity I I don’t know that even anybody that bet him thought that but that’s for them to say because I
don’t know who they are Dan what do you think Guru said that Elise Reed has the
cardio Advantage here I think so yeah I do I think she’s not good cardio she’s one of the things I
think she’s known for once it goes once it gets grappling that goes out the window so don’t if it stays standing
she’s got good cardio she’s got decent pace with that isn’t Elise Reed the same
person that got finished in round three by Sam Hughes and in round two by Luma Luke Boone Sam uses somebody with
unbelievable cardio as well and Loma took her to had just had to Grapple with
her and choked her out I had to Grapple with her well she started chose to
Grapple with her right because she’s at least smarter than that kind of she stopped fighting with 30 seconds into a
round or whatever because she just randomly thought the fight was over so I don’t know about her fight like you either but she at least had enough fight
IQ to take down Elise Reed if I hear if I hear loopy say in a fighter man yeah
I’m gonna take this girl down wonderful you’ve got my bet you got the we can we can move on but I haven’t heard it yet
when you talk about Pace that this girl has got more Pace the most strike she’s ever landed in a fight was 76 against
Corey McKenna because she’s usually getting controlled in the grappling loopy godinez last fight she landed 132
significant strikes against Emily ducote so loopy does not have to wrestle here I
mean it’d be it’d be the best you know path of least resistance like that’d be the smart way to go especially if you’re
laying minus 440 but make no mistake about it loopy can hang on the feet with at least read here and I think she’s
going to win the fight everywhere it takes place it’s just about when you’re laying a price like this yeah I’d prefer you to take down Elise Reed who by the
way gentlemen has been taken down and every single UFC fight she’s had including against people that aren’t
known for taking their their opponents down like Luma Luke Boone me okay so you
know the the [ __ ] uh Muay Thai Fighter that that girl that girl took down Elise read every single person that’s fought
at least read has taken down Elise read so if loopy wants to be smart and take her down I mean I think it might be a
30-26 if not a finish but if she wants to stand with her that might give Elise a chance but I think that loopy can hang
with her on the feet too so I got loopy yeah I like the there will be pairings
on FanDuel where you could play by round one or round two submission that’s kind of my vibe here well so then Dan what’s
the bet if it’s loopy you’re playing four units on our minus 440 like what’s what’s the handicap then like where are
we sinking our teeth in a gambling perspective I’m just passing I don’t need it fair enough but that’s and that’s kind
of was my overarching point because I’m not I’m not picking uh read here if you
think Reed’s a live dog you need to trust your gut who cares what I say you know what I’m saying but I’m just bringing up facts you said that she
pushes a better pace and has better cardio and I had to point out that she’s the one that’s been finished in the later rounds more than once
yeah Fair Point Loopy’s never lost by finish Elise has never lost by decision
so it’s it’s pretty clear but what if we uh I think loopy gets it done inside so
we are on to our next fight here we got Roman gladiator copy love versus Josh
Mile High friend we got copy love at minus 345 framed it plus 260 Guru
chomping at the bit to yell at me about nicknames um friend is going to be three years
younger have a four inch height Advantage but only a one and a half inch reach Advantage which is uh actually a
pretty stark contrast to his height Advantage um I think copy love is going to be much
better defensively here from a wrestling perspective and a striking perspective and I think he’s got a lot more
finishing potential striking with the hands or throwing up those head kicks man I like friend I think he’s got
solid overall win ability in in a lot of matchups in the UFC I think he’s met his
match here though um Roman copy love has really shown an improvement in his game but he was
training in in Dagestan um for a bit so improving the cardio improving the takedown defense improving
his overall physique too because the dude was like a solid athlete before I feel like he’s like you know uh Dan will
tell you about the Garden of Life vitamins and vegetables so um Roman copy love I got him here he’s
gonna be the the third uh one of the pieces of the parlay I got him laid out twice
um one time with with rose sauce one time with uh Zell Huber and then the the
other leg was Fernando Padilla so that’s my I have two three leg parlays each a
unit uh so I have a two unit exposure here on Roman copylov’s money line across parlays uh will I find an inside
distance prop I like maybe what do you think Guru
um I why did you give him Mile High from is he from he’s not from yeah he’s
training in Colorado okay and you like the Gladiator one I kind of like the are
you call him like the Russian Gladiator or something no well his name is Roman but like the Gladiators and you know
like sure but he’s also you could call Roman the Russian Gladiator couple of Russia why do I need to save Russian I
thought it was just crazy you know well he’s but he’s from Russia like that’s what they like but his name is
all right and we’re over it anyway I was trying to like I’m trying to give you a little something but you ruined it
um I like copulov here I’m not really sure where from his from King is a fluke
sub um I just don’t really see him as a threat at all in the Striking I think there’s a major Gap there uh kapilov
striking is very crisp and it hurts he strikes really hard uh he
and Ash Claudio Ribeiro so I think he’s gonna eventually finish frem you can get
him by finish at uh minus 120 I believe on Bet365 at
the moment so I don’t hate it there might be better lines available when lines finally do open up those
[ __ ] those cockroaches but uh yeah I like it and uh
is the second leg in my parlay actually so it’s zellhuber copy love and uh one
more and we’ll get a little plus money and I think we’ll get out with a dub what do you think there Dan did this guy
say uh Josh from doesn’t have punching power no no I said last night
no I I mean I didn’t say it like that per se I mean he knocks out he hasn’t knocked out
anybody at the UFC level he swings hard because he feels comfortable in his grappling but I don’t know that like
straight up crisp technical boxing is where he I I didn’t ask about who’s the
more Chris technical boxer I said do you not think this guy has knockout power basically what I’m asking is did you not
watch his LFA fights no I I mean I yeah I mean he knocked out Bruno Oliveira and
Antonio what’s his name Jones so you did so you did watch his LFA fights yeah
okay this guy was starching guys with one hit or quitter some of the most brutal Knockouts I’ve seen in the LFA
and when he got to the UFC I’ve been waiting to see it it’s I haven’t seen it yet um I mean the only guy he’s hurt so
far has been Dumas which I cashed at like plus 180 plus 190. everyone was on Dumas for whatever reason and then the
fight would pick it you know it was literally frem’s worst day he missed his weight for the first
time in his career and he’s still easily 30 27’s picket um but I think on his best day he easily knocks out pick it my
here’s my thing with copalov man is that I feel like people forgot when this guy first came to the UFC he got out
kickboxed and choked out by Carl Roberson Albert derive beat the living
[ __ ] out of him the fight with Alessio D carico was a 50-50 fight until the third
round and uh Ben whatever happened in that third round man that was a
beautiful combo by by a couple of and ever since then it seems like he’s become a new man it seems like he’s
become a lot more comfortable inside the octagon and very very clean hands also a
nasty liver kick strings his combinations together so I mean I get why you know he’s the
pick here but I think he was the pick at a better line you know now that’s approaching I think it’s What minus 450
at this point it’s not minus 645 anymore it’s in the minus 400s now um but from I think he’s a lot better
than people are giving him credit for if you watch his Regional scene he was getting vicious knockouts
I don’t see what you’re what you’re showing me there DraftKings is shitty but it’s still
minus 345 there okay all right well that’s good because I think across like the board he’s like yeah it’s gotten up
to over minus 400 on certain books FanDuel has it at minus 400. nice well if you can still get 345 I mean I mean
at least you’re ahead of the market um but like like I was saying I was excited when friend got signed
because his Regional scene was some of the most devastating Knockouts I had seen the guy is also six foot five He’s
listed at six four he’s six foot five um he’s a big boy trains with really good people in Colorado guys like Dustin
Jacoby so I just need to see him put it together at the UFC level
um and when he does that I mean I think he’s gonna get some good Knockouts as well and uh with kopalov you know he’s
Russian so you’d think that he’s got good wrestling he doesn’t have good wrestling um come on no comparing Macau dacus Kyle
dacus there’s a reason that Dana didn’t sign Kyle dacus on Contender series he said you know I just don’t see that
killer in him and then guess what they finally sign him the UFC they still didn’t see that killer in him he did
finish Kevin Holland though but uh now uh you know Kyle dacus is finishing guys
like um what’s that bum’s name that he fought um uh the guy with like the ridiculously
bad record Ellis he’s fighting guys like Ellis on the regional scene you know what I’m saying uh but anyways don’t
don’t distract me don’t get me off guard here I still think that friend has a lot more to show I don’t think he’s showing
what he’s fully capable of yet and he was very good on the Regionals he wasn’t just very good he was devastating on the
regionals but Copa love is finally putting it together because kopalav looked like [ __ ] uh his first two UFC
fights first two and a half to be frank but these last two he’s been doing his thing but at the same time you know
Claudio hibero fights with his hands down and his chin straight up in the air um and then who do you knock out before
that oh poona man that puneify was amazing he looked incredible against Puna so you got to give him credit the
momentum’s on his side I’m just not convinced it’s going to be as easy as people think uh that that’s
my only thing I’ll pick him but uh let’s see show show me uh if it’s gonna be minus 400 easy it was he listened he was
also supposed to fight fluffy Hernandez and he’s getting Josh frem so it’s almost a similar stylistic matchup in
terms of somebody that’s better with grappling than their striking at the very least guess who walking around against uh Anthony Hernandez
Josh Brown Josh I was there I was in Florida and Josh frem took that fight on
oh that’s complete [ __ ] he’s on a two fight win streak what do you mean he wouldn’t be in the UFC
it’s a good question good question But ultimately I mean copy love is the
pick I have uh I think two units of exposure in two small parlays at the at minus 345 actually I I got him at a I
think even a little better than the minus 345 line once again I posted these yesterday so uh when I played them
immediately I put them up once again man of principle uh the line that I got was
minus 300 and minus 310 on 365 and DraftKings uh that was yesterday when I
tweeted out so make sure you follow us on Twitter and everywhere else because sometimes but by the time we get to the
show all the line movements come um it is what it is our next fight
we got I guess I just stopped changing what weight class it was so this is classic
welcome back to the semester TV that’s all oopsies yeah I know Guru got exasperated exactly one more semester
baby we’re pushing on through uh Edgar Cyrus the pitbull versus Daniel la serda
de Silva I don’t know where the mioho goes but it’s somewhere in there um is it Daniel miojo la serada de Silva
it’s Daniel miojo de Silva lacerda oh no oh no no even worse I had to figure out
where did the silver went and I was wrong yeah it goes in the middle I gotta give uh dang Dan caught me with my pants
down there all right anywho we got shadows as the minus 258 versus however
his name is supposed to correctly be that I messed up plus 210 uh Mr de Silva
Lacerta um listen I I feel like shyraz is one of
those guys he’s the he’s one of those landmines and I can’t I can in my right mind recommend him but
at the same time you look over at the silver side and it’s like well can I make like my official like prediction
and tapology pick the guy that’s been finished in in every single matchup so far at the UFC level and and early too
ultimately from a betting angle you have to look towards the owner but it’s like the under minus is my one and a half is
minus 195. um so really it’s kind of are you taking Daniel uh by round one slash two
yeah or are you passing entirely I kind of lean towards like some Da Silva
Action Man I I like like you said if you want to take the silver Lacerta I think you
gotta take him early I think you got to take round one round two prop
um because that’s where he’s live um the problem in doing that of course
on the Charice size is that he has shown some durability yes he’s been finished uh twice but one is late round two
triangle and the other is a round five submission so he has shown at least in
that respect some durability tatsudu Tyra unable to finish him and he’s a fantastic Grappler so so he actually
dropped Tyro I mean at least once if not twice in that fight um Clayton Carpenter a guy that you know
I don’t say what you want about his skill level he’s a finisher right and he didn’t finish him either so
I cut that’s like kind of working against Lacerta but man do I want to see him get a dub and get a contract and get
some more fights because he epitomizes I think what it means to be I mean at
least if you’re not good enough at least be in your seat for for four minutes I think the man is truly Elite and by God
is he entertaining so I would love nothing more than to watch him win but uh I I’m gonna begrudgingly
pick Cherise I got Daniel Da Silva lucera here man I
mean listen uh and I took the money line if I’m picking an underdog out right I don’t need to get cute with some [ __ ]
props I took him straight up um this is one of the few occasions where I didn’t get the best of it though
I gotta I bet him at plus 180. I mean I thought that line was fine but I didn’t expect uh it to go to plus 210 so I
think that Line’s fine too I mean basically the reason that he’s getting an opportunity off four straight
losses is because look at how he fights he’s super exciting and while he’s uh
fresh it’s not just that he’s like some brawler or by the way the Braves just
won the division so uh let’s suck at Mets fans hey Metro up seven nothing
Alonso did something and Braves just won the division but uh so uh
like it’s not that this guy’s just some exciting brawler this dude Sarah he actually shows some
really good technique while he’s fresh it’s just kind of been a pacing issue kind of been a maturity issue but he’s
surrounded by the right people I mean he’s with the shooter box guys he’s got Charles Oliveira and all those guys with
him if he can just show me a little bit of maturity I think you can get this one done because the thing with Shire is you
know kind of like with Hafiz and the JDM fight like people were you know hafez had a
little bit of success as a massive Underdog so people were were you know kind of overblowing it same thing with
Shiraz and Tyra Tyra beat the [ __ ] out of Shiraz man like shyra’s had two good moments in that fight and we’re gonna
act like he should be minus 250 in a UFC fight versus anybody look the thing with
Cyrus is he’s tough he’s Mexican but he his volume is terrible it’ll be two
minutes of inactivity when he actually does decide to throw
um he throws hard and he does have some opportunistic submissions but it’s few and far between he also slows down as
fights progress I mean this is Daniel for one night put it together kid like
you crush the grapes now we drink the wine let’s go out here and cash as an underdog and get your first UFC win I’m
going Daniel miojo de Silva lacerda to finally fifth time’s the charm get that
first UFC win Hey listen and for the record he’s not in my parlay Mr Charis I totally agree
with your sentiment there Dan he did he there’s nothing about him that has warranted this price tag
he’s not he’s not in the parlay so I want everybody to be here about that
Mr Charisse um uh shout out uh everybody in the chat
you guys are awesome yeah the more you say it then I do make stupid decisions sometimes so why would I take a crazy
prop when you just need to play the underdog line if you got that feeling in your huevos um just because I just don’t I don’t
think that I just don’t think he wins a decision I just right but could it not be like round three
you know what I mean like if I play round one round two couldn’t it be round three for something I mean and you can
still go Grandma’s couch cushion at a round three prop which is gonna be plus a thousand or more yeah but it’s plus
210 already what am I doing you know what I mean like I guess crazy we get like to get spicy out here I know but
plus two ten is spicy bro like if I could catch it on plus 210 I’m thrilled so yeah I think he’s gonna be the the
more athletic better Strikers just we’ve seen those four loss in a row but damn man listen to Dan talk about that one if
there was a fight I was going to be swayed on it might have been this one like to to feel a little more solid in
my like because I was kind of thinking the dog might do it here and and that that kind of helps solidify some of my
thoughts I’m right it doesn’t no no right it doesn’t but listen whatever you did for Sean O’Malley fight week all the
stuff you posted all the prayers all the voodoo Juju you put out there we got to do the same thing for for mioho here we
gotta keep the Good Vibes flowing listen if you if you remember Leonard Garcia they let him lose like five or six in a
row because of how fights the difference here is that lucerita actually has some really good technique he’s not just you
know close your eyes and brawl kind of guy so man just show me a little bit of
maturity kid because this guy Shiraz is nothing special at all like this guy should not be minus 250 versus anyone on
the roster yeah amen I’ve just gotten addicted to hitting those those those big props you
know what I’m saying how they’re working out for you they look I’ve been playing them really small I was trying to pull
up the one from last week that wasn’t a question they’ve actually been going well honestly I’ve been going small very
small oh yeah you’re profitable on them uh he’s talking like a couple gurus
talking about a couple week sample size essentially yeah very small and then it goes after y’all
right no I’ve hit a couple of them what I hit I hit the round two sub on that I
can’t remember which fighter it was a few weeks ago TV we believe you we believe all right yeah yeah let’s move on to the more pressing matters here I
mean look at this match up here bro we got Tracy maybe it’s not Junior maybe
it’s senior Cortez hey last week versus Jasmine vicious Jazz divisius another
couple Fighters without any nicknames so I just had to do my best here
um Tracy coming in gonna be five years younger she’s given up two inches of height giving up three inches of reach
she’s the minus 118 at this point with jazz divisius at minus 102. quite simply
I feel like Cortez has kind of been able to use her physicality to bully opponents with top control and
um kind of like playing as fish you can at distance while she has the cardio but like we’ve seen even that look a bit
sketchy we’ve seen Cortez pull out of fights we’ve seen her slow down down the stretch
um when you’re able to kind of counter some of her wrestling um and Jazz divisius I think is just the
right opponent has made improvements on the feet in her last couple of uh fights
because the look against Kay Hansen was why I took Kay Hanson in the Jazz The Vicious fight on the feet it’s just I
expected Hanson to have success wrestling and it’s the same thing here I feel like Court says it’s like a lot of
people are expecting her to have success wrestling is just jazz divisius is so big and she has good technique to
counter takedowns and use them to her advantage and end up with top control in good position I don’t think she even
needs to rely on top control position I think she’s going to be the more athletic Striker with better output and
better cardio from distance I got Jazz division here and I posted it two to three days ago plus money plus
money was still available plus 100 on bet 365 as of a couple hours ago I’m not
looking at this second but DraftKings is minus 102. so I finally found some clv
on this card from a dog to favor perspective I did my job here I got Jazz divisius at plus 110. I hope you guys
were following on Twitter because you could have jumped in then but I think that 365 is still plus 100 so if you’re
feeling the same um do your thing join in but Guru who are you playing here for the record it
was round two on a sue Alma bayev it’s just the name eluded me because what a
random ass name I really liked I think it was plus 12 to 1 on that really like jazz division is here
um got hers plus money as well plus 110 and dipped in again at plus 105 as I
continued to watch the line slip away on all the other books which is why it’s always optimal to have multiple outs
um Tracy Cortez is somebody that um honestly kind of struggled in some of
her striking exchanges you know even in her last fight with Melissa Gatto and
continue and then times got taken down and you know was uh on bottom to Melissa
Gatto she was able to quickly reverse that position but Jazz and vicious is somebody with Olympic wrestling prowess
and has much better top control calm that calm down calm down uh it’s a Canadian it’s Canadian okay
thanks for specifying but you know it’s still Olympic wrestling product I mean it’s it’s it’s pretty solid man yeah
because there were like two wrestlers there that you know right so exactly but I I mean I’ve been
impressed with what she’s able to do nobody really thought that first off she’s an underdog to Gabriel Fernandez which I thought was really funny and we
took her there and then she was an underdog again versus Miranda Maverick and and we’re like I think she you can
outgrind Miranda Maverick and somebody that can’t get up from bottom and she was able to do that as well so I’m just
I honestly even think on the feet as well that Jasmine is is a better Striker so I’m not saying she’s a good Striker
at the very worst it’s still pick him on the feet and I’m gonna take the girl that’s longer and uh gonna be I think
the better grapple on the ground so Tracy Cortez to me from an offensive
standpoint as you saw versus Melissa Gatto as well just kind of like lay and pray I just didn’t really love
it and especially with these new rules of they’re just gonna stand him up all the time now I don’t love it Jasmine is
somebody at least I feel like more willing to do a little bit more ground and pound
not not much but will do more because she’s more confident in her top control
so give me Jasmine at plus money and uh yeah sorry to spoil the the Spanish
Knight I think I think our Jasmine here too but I’m not gonna sit here and act like you
know she’s some Olympic wrestler or some [ __ ] like that you know I’m not I’m not gonna [ __ ]
I mean she literally was at the Olympics for wrestling like she’s not [ __ ]
Kurt Angle she’s not [ __ ] Henry sahuto but like you just how I mean how
could we just take away somebody’s like [ __ ] trophy like that I I can’t do it
she she meddled at the Olympics no but to even go is still did she actually
really go to the Olympics yeah and didn’t she meddle I think I have it written
I haven’t read I mean she’s more like an upper body like wrestler she’s a silver she was a silver medalist but in
Canadian Freestyle Wrestling right like is that at the Olympics or was it at a Canada event there’s no way she’s an
Olympic silver medalist no she’s not she’s not Marco Madsen she’s not an Olympic silver medalist
well so but you were talking about Olympic wrestling you said Olympics just I mean just the okay Daniel Cormier is
an Olympic wrestler but he didn’t meddle either no but no but we’re saying that did she even I don’t think she competed
at was she on the Olympic team I don’t know I have to look that up that may be false
I may have misunderstood the the um
the Acumen I will look that up but I know that she’s a has a very high wrestling pedigree so she’s more of an
upper body wrestler I actually think that uh Cortez is a better wrestler here however the issue with Cortez she’s more
of a lay in prayer I’m sure she’s super heavy on top and what I like about Jasmine is that she’s got that dog in
her she’s it might not look the prettiest but she’s gonna push that pace and if it’s one to one going in that
third round Jasmine is actually the one that I trust to kind of put that pedal to the metal and just kind of dog it out
a little bit so it might be ugly but it’s going to be gritty and as long as
Jasmine doesn’t get grinded out here by who I think is the you know the stronger wrestler in Cortez
um I I think Jasmine can can win two of these rounds so I’m gonna go Jasmine
I like it I like it and and I’m once again I don’t have a five unit Max here I got two units
on Jasmine at the at the plus money put it was it was posted out there people make sure you’re following them and if
you aren’t already Mr half the battle uh himself uh best fight picks Daniel Levy
Guru Scott and MMA we’re all out there on the Twitter sphere Instagram all that make sure you’re doing your thing we got
Alex Reyes the Executioner um versus Charlie the cannibal Campbell
plus 340 for Reyes minus 440 for Campbell over one and a half is at plus 175 but I
kind of get it you know um both these guys are gonna come out and bang Alex Reyes I mean how long has it been
six years six years can we think of anybody’s layoff who’s even like that
long before I I don’t I don’t know yeah uh Nick Diaz and he looked terrible when he came back Matt Wyman he looked
terrible when he came back so yeah it doesn’t often go well and Dominic has been having so much success Dominic was
four years yeah yeah oh no I meant I meant but Dominic Reyes
was having something I’m back and join the fun uh but I mean
if anything um yeah I mean Campbell’s gonna be the bigger guy he’s going to be the younger guy
it’s just uh we’ve seen Campbell in the fire fight before it’s just Chris Duncan was able to to withstand some of that
damage I don’t think Reyes necessarily will be able to withstand that damage uh if it starts happening in a car crash in
the pocket I think the Executioner is going to turn into the executed it’s just I’m not putting money on Campbell
the cannibal at minus 440 here and I don’t really find a need to play his prop of anything it’s like dance talked
about many times we’ve got a guy making his debut that’s one factor making his debut on short notice
and yeah I mean we saw him when he took his step up on Contender series get finished so if you’re facing the guy
that has so many finishes I mean 13 in his career Alex Reyes if there was
anybody that would kind of turn back the clock and surprise people I mean it would be by finish against a guy that’s
showing us he can get caught it’s just the official pick is Charlie Campbell and I’m not putting my money on Alex
Reyes here I just don’t I don’t I don’t in I’m not enthusiastic about telling you guys to go and put your money on
Charlie Campbell so please don’t do it unless you want to listen to gamer gurudan who has a different idea uh
maybe they can is Alex Reyes an Olympic wrestler now
practitioner come on I mean he’s she’s also wrestled with Olympians I’m really I’m looking it up here oh she wrestled
with Olympians thank you thank you you know she’s not no she’s not an Olympic wrestler I I’ve obviously uh I
misunderstood uh even what I had wrote so that that is a mistake on my end but
she’s certainly a high quality wrestler Charlie Campbell is an awesome fighter
an exciting Fighter um not an Olympic level wrestler by any
means but I do like him in this fight and I kind of like I don’t want to
Parlay him per se minus 440 but as soon as some props come out I’d love to go for some early round props uh some sort
of finish prop perhaps even the KO because Alex Reyes is somebody who took
the fight six years ago first Mike Platinum Perry to be the co-main event
of Luke rockhold versus David Branch he took that fight on short notice and and
was a major Underdog and got starched quickly with knees and heavy rights it
just he just didn’t look very good at all Charlie Campbell is an ex is a very
solid fighter who you know obviously God is chin checked by Chris Duncan because he’s a little
reckless so I I just don’t necessarily think that I mean Alex right here sort of had to
make amazing improvements in the last six years what’s he even been doing so I
I like Charlie Campbell to get it done here but he’s still not my parlay bees
I think he should be man because think about this Reyes wasn’t even supposed to be in the UFC when he made his debut it
was supposed to be Mike Perry versus Thiago Alves and Alves had some kind of weird travel issues so they were
literally like [ __ ] like who can we call so they’re like all right call Dominic Reyes his little brother that has zero
business in the UFC I bet he’ll take the fight you know and he did take the fight so respect to him but you know he showed
he clearly doesn’t belong in 2017 why would he suddenly belong in 2023 you
know what’s interesting so after that fight that Reyes had in 2017
um Charlie Campbell hadn’t even had his first amateur fight yet so Charlie Campbell’s entire career including
amateur and pro started after Reyes got knocked out by Mike Perry and I like
this kid camel man I mean he reminds me of like a young clay Collard he’s aggressive he goes for it he’s hungry
he’s a finisher he’s gonna get in your face he’s gonna make you fight and for a guy coming off off a big layoff I mean I
I’d assume that you need a little space to kind of get your feet wet a little bit kind of take a deep breath or two
and Charlie’s not going to give him that opportunity so I think Charlie finishes him in one
you know if there was any prop to play it would definitely be the Charlie round one here I like that yeah I think he’s
dangerous and uh that I do like him I just felt like 440 is [ __ ]
super steep but yeah maybe I might well I mean I could stick him in there listen
listen I don’t mind being a little degenerate if there was any type of guy to Parlay I guess it this a guy that’s
after a round one finish here would it’s definitely going to look good in hindsight from a from a price perspective
um so here we go how about from a price perspective throwing Josephine Knutson Thunder minus 575 uh and versus marnick
the sawed-off Savage man um Josephine Newton
three years younger giving up five inches of reach they are even in height of five three uh nutsin if anything has
shown that she has absolutely um she has good enough IQ to like win
the fight by by any way but she doesn’t have good enough IQ to realize that like she’s actually gonna like push for a
finish when she has someone hurt and especially on a show where like finishes are like asked for
um I mean Isis for beak she should have put her away in round one after that head kick and just chooses to get in
close into clinch exchanges and then not even able to take that to the mat I the
way that verbeek looked early she lets her get back into the fight and have these individual moments where it’s just
like that’s why Dana this was the only fighter that Dana didn’t originally sign but now they’re like oh wow we had Noche
UFC and Yasmine lucindo needs an opponent or whatever so originally they were like all right bring in Josephine
on short notice she’ll take the fight to get in the UFC um but now instead of her getting you
know sawed off by Yasmin lucindo she’s getting a chance to take on the sawed-off Savage who also probably
doesn’t have any business in the UFC but they’re like well we already signed a book Josephine to fight at Noche UFC so
who the hell else can we get on this card uh to fill in the spot where we’ve had so many fallouts on this card
um yeah I think that’s how they settle down marnikman I just I mean this is another one where I’m like please don’t
parlay or play Josephine Newton at minus 575 I mean even almost say
uh Josephine Newton would be more likely to have this fight Go the Distance I see
the over two and a half and minus 210 so they have the right idea already just stay away just don’t do it I’m not sure
that I agree I I think Josephine nuts in his is fairly safe here um everything I saw on tape from marneck
man was uh fairly unimpressive from her getting from her being soft to the body
and I mean to me I mean almost at the wrong weight class uh she gets hurt early by Bruno Brazil and then gets head
kicked and we know how not very impressive she is and then in her Amber
Brown fight after that on LFA she drops loses and drops the entire first round
Hal mind you by getting held up against the cage
and then put on the floor if we know Josephine can do anything on
planet Earth it’s hold somebody up against the cage and just so you know you have the reach wrong she’s 64 inches
not 66 inches reach so it’s going to be three inches not five so that’s a I I
still don’t I just there’s nothing I don’t see anything in man’s game that’s like impressive in terms of like
a striking Acumen really at all like it’s not there so if the fight’s going
to be taking place any sort of grappling you’ve seen nutson’s proficiency at it
I I like her as well and I throw a channel Charlie Campbell in there as well just didn’t want to be too
sketchy with uh I guess they’re both short notice so it’s both kind of sketchy but why not go double sketch in
that regard so [ __ ] it we’ll go full send
the way people reacted when nutsun didn’t get signed to the UFC was nuts
son you know what I mean like this girl like literally she lands one good head kick and then the rest of the fight is a
clinch battle and people were acting like they saw God’s gift is striking it was absolutely disgusting and then all
the group think and people are acting like this girl was the next Joanna Young Jay check uh I mean I’m just so pissed
off that the lucindo fight wasn’t happening because all these people planning their flag about how this is a future top 15 fighter and this and that
give me a [ __ ] break but here she’s fighting the person that came off literally the most brutal women’s
knockout in Contender Series history against Bruno Brazil um so I mean I’m not impressed with
nothing no chance I’d ever lay minus five something let alone minus four something on her
um against anybody in the UFC but this is one she should win hopefully she looks impressive so we get we get a good
price to fader down the line I love it I love it it makes sense like
she is the the straight pick to win this fight and uh yeah I mean she should get
it done so if you have your your parlays and you want to get crazy just just do it safely you know someone making their
who’s that responsible we don’t want to we don’t want to blow our bankroll on it but I I kind of like it I do think that
she’s you know fairly safe and you can parlay her in over one and a half at minus 188 I mean on that oh man I’m just
I’m just itching to get there so itchy really appreciate it
if you made it this far you’re an absolute Legend I really appreciate anyone and everyone that made it in the
chat tonight you guys are awesome um really wouldn’t be the same without the the incredible Community we have in
the in the MMA Twitter space on YouTube here so many great creators like we’ve said if you haven’t already Mr Daniel
Levy best fight picks from half the battle um one of The Originators of betting
content in this space and and he really has given so many different terms and like different ways about how this game
has come together and things to look out for got to give respect where it’s due and like that’s one thing that I lack in
this game is the experience I’m still learning but one thing that we’re always willing to do is put in the work and learn from it so if you haven’t already
please like Please Subscribe costs you nothing I’ma pass it off Mr Dan Levy do
you have any last words here um I’m gonna bring those full screen here now uh let the fans know what’s
going on no I mean just thank you guys uh for having me I’m glad we finally
came to the conclusion that jazz divisions is not an Olympic wrestler uh it’s been an absolute pleasure being on
here man um y’all can find my podcast half the battle everywhere podcasts are found keep up the good work gentlemen I look
forward to speaking soon thank you Dan Guru this way listen I
loved I love Dan always have loved having him on he’s got that fiery personality he’s got sharp bets uh
holding us accountable the last thing I’d ever want to do is uh is steer anybody wrong or or uh spread
misinformation spread that fake news so you know I’m not about that life so I I
love being called out I’m not somebody that’s gonna shy away from it so uh yeah I totally made a mistake I’ll I’ll guess
what I’ll make more so tune in next week to hear more mistakes that I’ll make but guess what I’ll be cashing back
and just so you guys know between the three of us which one has been in the
top top of that that list for the last five weeks in a row for Twitter Twitter
handicappers right I shout out our boy Brian XL only the guru so my picks have been
pretty solid and they come together on Saturdays but uh God damn I dude I really I appreciate the Josh Emmett
thing too dude by the way I love that and uh congrats man just thanks so much for hanging out with us man really
appreciate it one of these days you’ll have to choke me out in person but uh only if you sign the waiver yeah we’ll
figure it out um I just figured you’d want to but
hashtag hashtag Guru off the rails no no I I only do that in Jiu-Jitsu scenarios
no we don’t even look for fights on the streets no I feel you um that’s funny as [ __ ] Dan again thanks
so much for hanging out with us everybody thanks for hanging out with us make sure you’re following my unbelievable co-host TB scouting MMA on
Twitter verdict Instagram and tapology you can follow me the guru guru scouting
MMA Twitter verdict Instagram and tapology thanks so much we’ll be back next week
what do we even got next we got physiv and gamrod that’s a sick fight one of
the better ones in the apex of the uh upcoming weeks so can’t wait for that y’all remember when Guru was crying
about sodiq Yusuf versus Edson Barboza being a man my God it was the phrasing of my question you always take me to
testing I’m gonna have to start doing Jiu Jitsu so I can choke you out like he he reaches Josephine nuts and was a main
event instead yes exactly that’s exactly what I said Thank you and she’s gonna be the next championship probably take
Valentina so we actually hopefully should have an
unbelievable special guest for next week so really stay tuned for that um yeah who’s that tell me offense it’s
a secret oh we will take care guys

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